Has Labour’s David Davis bubble burst?

Has Labour’s David Davis bubble burst?

Spread punters start backing the Tories again The big move back to Labour on commons seats spread betting markets has taken a tumble during the day with Tory buying and Labour selling causing a four seat switch with both main parties. Based on the mid-points from the Sporting Index prices above the market is now reflecting a Tory overall majority of 28 seats at the next election compared with the 20 seat projection that Morus reported last night. True this…

Read More Read More

Can Nick’s party beat the spread markets?

Can Nick’s party beat the spread markets?

Have punters got this one right? The latest buy spread level for Lib Dem general election seats is 48 – that’s 15 short of what they have at the moment. Does this represent a betting opportunity and if so which way? The detailed data from the latest ICM polls shows that Labour was just three percent ahead of the LDs before the application of of the so-called “spiral of silence adjustment” – the calculation whereby a proportion of the vote…

Read More Read More

Spreadbetting market sees significant shift

Spreadbetting market sees significant shift

Are Tory supporters getting nervous? Mike Smithson has asked me to highlight significant movement on the Sporting Index political spreadbetting markets. After victory in the Crewe & Nantwich by-election, the mid-point between the Buy and Sell price on Conservative seats at the next election had been around 350, implying that David Cameron would enjoy a majority of around 50. Today, that mid-point price dropped to 335, suggesting a majority of only 20. It seems inevitable that this is largely in…

Read More Read More

Ireland votes No – so what happens now?

Ireland votes No – so what happens now?

No has 53.7% with just 5 results left With a joint statement expected from Merkel and Sarkozy this evening, what will be the next step for the EU after a comfortable win for the “No” camp in Ireland? Only eight out of 38 constituencies declared have so far voted Yes, with a margin of just 4 votes in Carlow-Kilkenny. RTE Irish Times Results detail Double Carpet

Is Ireland heading for a No vote?

Is Ireland heading for a No vote?

No leads comfortably in most parts of Ireland Early indications as the count proceeds in Ireland are that the Lisbon Treaty referendum has been lost. Tallies from the constituencies show that most of the country is voting No by a wide margin (60-40 in some Dublin seats for example). No constituencies have yet declared, and the final result is expected by teatime. If this result is confirmed there will certainly be some thinking to be done at the EU, and…

Read More Read More

Isn’t the news agenda going to just move on?

Isn’t the news agenda going to just move on?

Will we still remember the cause on polling day? I’m on the penultimate day of my touring holiday in Spain and haven’t had much access to the UK media during the past extraordinary 24 hours so it’s hard forming an opinion of how this is going to play. Hopefully we should see some quickie poll soundings which will give a sense of whether the former Shadow Home Secretary has made a ghastly mistake or whether he has public support. A…

Read More Read More

Who will stand against David Davis?

Who will stand against David Davis?

Will the Labour Party run against David Davis? Guido is running with a story that the Labour PPC for Haltemprice & Howden is (according to Guido’s sources) opposed to 42-days detention without trial. If true, this puts Labour in a difficult position. They are already talking about not running a candidate on the grounds that it dignifies what they see as a stunt. The party’s financial worries mean that a third by-election in a matter of weeks puts unwelcome pressure…

Read More Read More