Spread punters start backing the Tories again
The big move back to Labour on commons seats spread betting markets has taken a tumble during the day with Tory buying and Labour selling causing a four seat switch with both main parties.
Based on the mid-points from the Sporting Index prices above the market is now reflecting a Tory overall majority of 28 seats at the next election compared with the 20 seat projection that Morus reported last night. True this is not at the 50 seat majority the markets moved to in the Tory euphoria immediately after Crewe and Nantwich but a four seat jump is significant.
In the absence of any new polling, though I expect at least one survey overnight, I put this down to a reassessment of the scale of the damage to the Tories that David Davis’s by-election initiative might have caused.
Interestingly some of the Saturday press comment has been favourable to Davis including a piece by the Labour peer and lawyer, Helena Kennedy.
I have just returned from nearly three weeks in Spain and I’m still trying to assimilate the impact of the story. I’ll give my fuller thoughts later.