Will a lost deposit be what next Thursday is remembered for? At the PB party last night I was repeatedly asked about Ladbrokes’s market on whether Labour will lose its deposit in the Henley by election next Thursday. The price has now tightened to 8/13 and even at that level I think it is a good bet. Over the years the Labour has been squeezed dramatically in by-elections that have been seen as a straight Conservative-Lib Dem fight. In 1993,…
Please continue the thread here It has been party night for PBers in London and many are now on their way home. Our venue was the terrace of the National Liberal Club overlooking the Thames and just a block away from Big Ben. Mike Smithson
MORI: Half of 2005 Labour voters “less likely to do it again” A new poll by Ipsos-MORI sponsored by the Unison trade union has more bad news for Gordon as he prepares to celebrate his first year in Downing Street. No voting intention figures were included in the survey all though interviewees were asked if they voted Labour in 2005. In its commentary the pollster says: “Ipsos MORI’s survey for UNISON, shows that almost half (47%) of those who have…
Is this what you look like when you are “Browned off“ Just going through the video of yesterday’s PMQs I was so struck by two brief cutaways of Kelly, Milliband, Denham and Blears as their leader was wrangling with Cameron over the Irish referendum result that I took the above screen shots. The four don’t look happy bunnies at all. Miliband, of course, is the 5/2 favourite to succeed Gordon while Denham is at 7/1. Yet what can they do…
What have the Lib Dems got up their sleeves? Anybody who has been following the Henley betting during the day will know that there was a big move to the Lib Dems from mid-afternoon. As I write the best back price on Betfair is 5/1. It looks as though the changes are linked to the above email which went out to Lib Dem members asking for their help for a special constituency-wide delivery tomorrow. I have no idea what’s in…
Have minister judged the public mood correctly? Shortly after David Davis formally resigned this morning the Labour party confirmed that it would not be putting up a candidate in the Haltemprice and Howden by-election. The decision was not unexpected particularly as the Labour PPC in the constituency is, or was, an opponent of his party’s 42 day detention without trial plan. It also avoids the embarrassment of having to deal with rebel Labour MPs who have said they will be…
Could the birthday week of judgement set the ball rolling? Next Friday, on June 27th, Gordon will be celebrating his first anniversary as Prime Minister and we are going to see a lot of commentators, like Jonathan Freedland in the Guardian, giving their verdict on the first twelve months. And given how events have unfolded this could provide the peg for a lot of critical analysis of his leadership style and further questions about his future. Freedland was a pretty…
Your invitation to Thursday’s PB Summer Barbeque This Thursday evening on the terrace of the National Liberal Club overlooking the Thames there’s the PB Summer Barbeque. It starts at 6pm. The venue is fabulous and is only a couple of blocks away from the Houses of Parliament. The address is Whitehall Place, London SW1A 2HE. It will be a pay-on-the-door event (the princely sum of £20 as a contribution towards costs, plus a cash bar) so we do not need…