Is this the most crucial picture of the campaign?

Is this the most crucial picture of the campaign?

Will disaffected Hillary supporters now back Barack? By far the biggest question mark that’s been hanging over the Democratic party’s chances in November’s election has been the extent to which fiercely loyal Hillary supporters will switch their support to the presumed nominee. Poll and after poll has shown that a significant proportion of Clinton backers, particularly women in the older age groups, have found it difficult to accept the outcome and have said they would give their votes to John…

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ComRes report record Tory lead

ComRes report record Tory lead

The Brown anniversary surveys come thick and fast After a by-election and two new national opinion polls to digest there’s another new survey tonight – by ComRes for tomorrow’s Independent. This was carried out on Wednesday and Thursday so is the most up-to-date of the polls. The shares are with changes on the last ComRes poll a fortnight ago are: CON 46% (+2): LAB 25% (-1): LD 18% (+1). Both the Tory share, 46%, and the 21% margin over Labour…

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Tory lead at 17% with Ipsos-MORI

Tory lead at 17% with Ipsos-MORI

The first national opinion poll to be published from Ipsos-MORI since the end of April is just out and shows the Tories with a 17% lead. The main figures are above. The fieldwork was carried out by phone from June 13th – June 15th – so the polling was done at the start of last week. The pollster has also revealed its figures for May which were CON 45%: LAB 13% 33%: LD 14%. These had been held up pending…

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Gordon’s Brown’s year on the betting markets?

Gordon’s Brown’s year on the betting markets?

How punters have reacted to his first twelve months At almost exactly 3.30pm on the afternoon of June 27th 2007, just after Gordon Brown had started works as prime minister, I took the snap-shot below of the main general election betting markets. I did this partially as a matter of record. This afternoon, at almost exactly the same time I took another snap-shot of the same markets so we can see how things have changed. General Election betting – June…

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Is this the man who could pose a problem for Davis?

Is this the man who could pose a problem for Davis?

Will Walter Sweeney attack from the right on 42 days? Amongst the massive list of contenders for the Haltemprice and Howden by election is a Dublin-born former Tory MP who looks set to attack Davis from the right on 42 day detention period issue. He is Walter Sweeney who held Vale of Glamorgan for the Tories by 19 votes in 1992 and who had plenty of run-ins with David Davis during the Maastricht votes in the final years of the…

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Happy first anniversary Gordon

Happy first anniversary Gordon

Will this have an impact on Brown’s survival? As predicted and recommended here over the past week the most certain bet on the Henley by-election was that Labour would lose its deposit which they did dropping from 6,862 votes at the general election to 1,066 and end up in fifth place behind both the Green party and the BNP. With the Lib Dems fighting hard it was always going to be that the Labour vote would get squeezed and in…

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YouGov boost for beleaguered Labour

YouGov boost for beleaguered Labour

Does this signal that a recovery is on the way? As we wait for the Henley result there’s some goodish polling news for Labour in the June YouGov poll for the Daily Telegraph. So the shares with the changes on the last YouGov poll in the Sunday Times twelve days ago are – CON 46%(-1): LAB 28%(+3): LD 15%(-3) The main move is a 3% fall in the Lib Dem shares and a similar increase in the Labour share. The…

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Could the BNP have made third place?

Could the BNP have made third place?

Reports coming onto the last thread from on the ground in Henley suggest that the BNP have done quite well – there’s even talk of them getting into third place. Such a result would certainly put the cat amongst the pigeons. We’ll know the result in a few hours. There’s be no indication from the betting markets that this is going to be anything other than a Conservative victory. The big questions are how close the Lib Dems will have…

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