Will the SNP be using this picture in Glasgow East?

Will the SNP be using this picture in Glasgow East?

Could the Thatcher stunt come to haunt Labour? An alert PB reader has reminded me that last September after Gordon Brown had his historic tea with Baroness Thatcher at Number 10 the SNP said they would use the pictures on their general election leaflets. Well now in the countdown to Glasgow East is Alex Salmond’s party going to bring this plan forward and are we we going to see pictures like the one above being revived. For even the Baroness’s…

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Is Cameron being helped by the polling revolution?

Is Cameron being helped by the polling revolution?

Would Tory leads be as big if older methodologies were still used? One factor that has completely changed the backcloth against which UK political life operates has been the almost total overhaul of the polling industry since the 2001 election to deal with what was the systemic problem of Labour over-statement. It is my contention that if the 2001 line-up of pollsters and polling methods were still in place then the current Labour poll deficits would be on a much…

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Is Sarah the only one who can tell him?

Is Sarah the only one who can tell him?

Q4 2008 now becomes the favourite date? The Sun’s Trevor Kavanagh runs through all the options on who will be able to tell Gordon and ends up by quoting a friend – “It has to be Sarah,” said a friend. “Nobody in this Cabinet has the balls to do it.” The general consensus, though, is that is has to be soon. In the departure date betting Oct–Dec 2008 has now become the 1.7/1 favourite. Second favourite is July – September…

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Can it really go on like this for two years?

Can it really go on like this for two years?

What is going to bring Brown’s position to a head? Yet again it is Gordon Brown’s future that continues to dominate UK politics. In her Monday Guardian column the former Brown enthusiast, Jackie Ashley, makes a powerful call on leading ministers and others within the Labour party to take some action to “end the drift”. Either they should come out and support the Prime Minister or they must act to get rid of him and this, she argues, has to…

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When did you become a Brown doubter?

When did you become a Brown doubter?

Is it just recently or have you thought so all along? It’s becoming very difficult to find anybody any more who still says positive things about Gordon Brown’s electability. One after another in recent months former great supporters of the ex-Chancellor have come to the same conclusion about the man they cheered into Downing Street at the end of June last year. But when did you start to realise that he did not have it? When did you conclude that…

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Do parties have to be more honest with activists?

Do parties have to be more honest with activists?

How much goodwill is squandered when you over-egg the pudding? A week before the Henley by election I reproduced the above mass email sent to Lub Dem activists because I believed it was behind sharp moves in the betting prices and that all that text highlighted in red suggested that the party had some game-changing information that was about to be revealed. Well what came out the following day did not match the billing and I think that this raises…

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Obama’s campaign chief outlines his strategy

Obama’s campaign chief outlines his strategy

I found this video by David Plouffe impressive – upbeat yet realisitic about the challenges ahead. It’s also a good guide for those who are betting either way on this race. Latest “Next President” betting. Latest “Winning Party” betting. Mike Smithson