What are the “other” contenders going to do to the Davis percentage? It’s only six days to go before Haltemprice and Howden – the by election where the former shadow home secretary, David Davis, is defending his seat made vacant by his resignation over the 42 day detention decision. With both Labour and the Lib Dems standing aside there’s an odd assortment of 25 others who will be on the ballot. It’s hard to see anything other than a big…
How much does this add to the problems of Darling and Brown? In terms of public interest the main story in the Times this morning will probably have less immediate impact on public opinion than last night’s news of the rejection by the commons of the proposals to deal with MPs’s expenses. But if the paper, which appears to have this as an exclusive, has this right then it will, surely, be another hammer blow to what used to be…
Is this a massive own-goal for those who voted for the status quo? If I was a PPC facing one of the 172 MPs who voted down the “John Lewis” list this evening I would work through the night tonight on a leaflet to hammer the incumbent so it can be delivered over the weekend. The MPs of all parties who opposed the changes were quite simply dumb and for their lack of political prowess and insensitivity alone they deserve…
Electoral-vote.com Is this the way to capitalise on Obama’s possible big victory? The above map is reproduced from the excellent Electoral-Vote.com which takes all the latest state polls and expresses them graphically on a map of the US. The solid blue states look set to go the Democratic; the solid red ones to the Republicans and the others are leaning in one direction or another or are exactly tied. It’s updated every day and my guess is that we will…
Have we been mesmerised by Boris, Crewe and Henley? During this crazy political period of spring and early summer the sure-fire way of winning political bets has been always to go against Labour. We had Boris’s triumph in London, the Tory gain in Crewe and Nantwich, followed by the Labour lost deposit in Henley. Bet against Labour – pick up your winnings. Now we’ve got the Glasgow East by election later in the month and judging by comments on the…
Was a deal done or not? The big news from PMQs was the revelation by David Cameron that he had a letter from Geoff Hoon which could be read as suggesting that that the Leicester MP would be rewarded for voting with the government in the 42 day detention period vote three weeks ago. Until now Gordon Brown has flatly denied all suggestions that deals were done. The handwritten note said “”Dear Keith … Just a quick note to thank…
Is it “the economy, stupid” The above table is reproduced from the June Ipsos-MORI “Issues Index” survey which has been carried out face-to-face in the same manner for decades. What’s unique about this polling series is that two questions are put totally unprompted, and the pollster has detailed records going back to the 70s. The first asks respondents to name the single most important issue facing the country while the second involves people naming all the issues they think are…
Guest slot by HenryG Manson Brown’s first year has been a real rollercoaster ride and most of us in the Labour Party are feeling rather unsettled and at times wanting to get off. To read the views Westminster commentators you’d be hard pressed to find anyone you thinks Brown can successfully tie his shoe-laces at the moment, never mind lead a dramatic poll recovery. The named leader polling offers grim reading. At the moment David Cameron is winning on pretty…