Would he have had a bigger lead with a different turnout approach? With the publication of two polls showing very different pictures of the UK’s biggest political betting event for years there’s going to be even more scrutiny of how the figures are produced. There are matters in relation to the YouGov approach that I have written to Peter Kellner about that I hope to discuss in the next few days In the meantime we now have the detailed data…
Will this change many votes? The latest twist in the contest for London Mayor are the revelations that Ken Livingstone has had five children by three different women. However, Ken has dismissed claims that the issue will affect his campaign. Responding to a question that some people might be shocked by the revelation, he said: “Clearly, I don’t think anybody in this city is shocked about what consenting adults do.” So will this alter many people’s choices when they cast…
Con 40 (+1), Lab 35 (-2) Lib Dem 18 (+2) The March Political Monitor out today from Ipsos MORI shows the Conservatives with a 5 point lead in voting intention, ahead of Labour on 35 and the Lib Dems on 18. The Tory lead is thus up three when compared to the February poll. Elsewhere in the poll, net personal ratings were -39 for the government, -31 for Brown, +4 for Cameron, and -7 for Clegg. The quota sample was…
What are the implications of Elisabeth Murdoch’s Obama fund-raiser? A big story which could have a significant impact on the battle for the White House is that Rupert Murdoch’s daughter, Elisabeth is to host a fund-raising event in London for the African-American senator from Illinois. Ms Murdoch, who is 39 and holds dual citizenship, has attracted close scrutiny as her father’s possible successor and much is being read into the current move – which involves the event which is likely…
After the YouGov surveys showing Boris with 12% and 10% lead respectively there’s an ICM poll out tonight for the Guardian that suggests the race is much closer. When second preferences are taken into account Boris has a margin of just 2% The first round prediction has Johnson 42%: Livingstone 41%: Paddick 10% What will be particularly pleasing for the Johnson camp is that he is beating Ken on second preferences. The Guardian notes “….Among Liberal Democrats, 43% say they…
PPP poll shows him ahead by 45-43, trails 49-38 among white voters A poll out today for Public Policy Polling in Pennsylvania shows Obama now leading in a state where Clinton has been enjoying comfortable leads. As ever though, the question is how reliable PPP is as a pollster, and whether this is a reliable indicator or should be taken with a pinch of salt. Obama is currently available at 3.1 to win the Keystone State on 22 April, so…
The Teflon Taoiseach calls it a day – Finance Minister Cowen 1.06 to succeed him Irish politics is set for major change following Bertie Ahern’s announcement today that he will step down as Prime Minister and Fianna Fáil leader on 6th May. Ahern has been a giant of the modern Irish scene, having been Taoiseach since 1997 and the first three-time election winner since De Valera, as well as playing a major role in the peace process in Northern Ireland….
What will the absence of a Jarvis factor mean for this time? Even before the opinion polls swung against him I had doubts over whether Ken could secure a third term because of the special circumstances of his 2004 victory. Ken’s margin then was not overwhelming and might have been smaller but for the day job of the Tory challenger, Steve Norris. The election then was always going to be a tough ask for Ken because to win he needed…