Surely the price should have moved out much more? As we end the parliamentary year I thought it would be useful to look at how punters have seen the next general election since the market was opened just after the last one in May 2005. The chart tracks the betting prices on “who will win most seats” expressed as an implied probability. The remarkable thing, given all the gloom and doom about Labour’s prospects from the Westminster village, is how…
Is this why you have to be careful about extrapolation? One of the main innovations in modern polling is the mechanism to ensure a politically balanced sample by asking how people voted last time and then attaching a weighting. Sometimes this can produce very strange results and there have been none stranger than what happened for former Lib Dem voters in the ICM Glasgow East poll at the weekend. Here, for some reason, the pollster only found six people who…
Is 10/1 good value on the newt-lover returning in 2012? I’ve just finished the book by the BBC’s Giles Edwards and the Telegraph’s Jonathan Isaby on Boris V. Ken: How Boris Johnson Won London. This is a highly readable account of both the background to this year’s race and the fight between two men for the most powerful elected position in UK politics. It’s a great holiday read for political anoraks and gives a good flavour and some interesting insights…
Are we seeing a re-run of the politics of the 60s and 70s? With council workers starting two days of strikes this morning there’s almost a 1960s and 1970s feel to the way the political scene is evolving. For in the run-up to the last time that a Labour government lost power, in 1979, it was public sector industrial action – the so-called “winter of discontent – that dominated the agenda and paved the way for Mrs. Thatcher. Only five…
Why my money’s on 45-50%? Ladbrokes have just put up a new Glasgow East betting market on the level of turnout that we can expect. This is timely because much of the comment about the seat has suggested that the proportion voting could be very low indeed. It was just 48.2% at the general election and there have been predictions of it dropping to the low 20s – particularly because election day takes place during the main Glasgow holiday period….
Doesn’t the Bill C complication make it difficult for Barack? As I posted here three weeks ago I am not risking any further cash on either the GOP and Democratic party V-P betting because I’m convinced that this is a mug’s game and it’s very tough to predict either outcome. The final decisions lie with Barack Obama and John McCain personally and, unlike an ordinary election, there is very little to guide us. As can be seen in the panel…
Could the battle be closer than the headline gap of 14%? I’ve now had chance to examine the detailed data from the weekend’s ICM poll on Glasgow East and there are elements which suggest that it might be better for the SNP than the headline data suggests. Spiral of silence adjustment. The actual shares in the poll before the final adjustment were LAB 46%: SNP 35%: CON 7%: LD 10%. The published figures were L47-SNP33-LD9-C7. The change, like with all…
Could Blair have impeded the Tory surge? On Friday I got into an argument with the Labour-leaning blogger I have most respect for, Paul Linford, over what would have happened to the party if Tony had not stepped down in June 2007. I felt that Labour would be doing better – Paul disagreed. He argued: “..Sure, there was a grudging recognition among the public that Blair “deserved†his ten years, but they were absolutely sick to the back teeth of…