Are punters right about Hillary’s V-P chances?

Are punters right about Hillary’s V-P chances?


    Doesn’t the Bill C complication make it difficult for Barack?

As I posted here three weeks ago I am not risking any further cash on either the GOP and Democratic party V-P betting because I’m convinced that this is a mug’s game and it’s very tough to predict either outcome. The final decisions lie with Barack Obama and John McCain personally and, unlike an ordinary election, there is very little to guide us.

As can be seen in the panel above the overnight betting had Betfair customers continuing to support Hillary as the Democratic favourite thus creating the so-called “dream ticket” that has been talked about for months. Certainly an Obama-Clinton line-up would deal with the ongoing issue of keeping on board those passionate Hillary supporters who were so upset when their dream of a woman nominee was squashed by Barack’s success.

    My reading is that Obama is going to find it difficult NOT choosing a woman – if only because the convention timing means that he has to decide first and there’s strong talk that a woman will be John McCain’s choice.

So which woman? The two front-runners are Kathleen Sebelius, Governor of Kansas and Hillary herself.

At the weekend the LA Times carried this report on what Obama had told prominent Clinton backer and donor, Jill Iscol, in a phone conversation. “..She said she told him that Clinton would be his best running mate.Obama replied that she is on his list, Iscol recounted, and that it would be a mistake not to have her on such a list. But he also explained that he was thinking through a potential “complication” — Bill Clinton. “He said once you’re a president, even if you’re a former president, you’re always a president” .

I just wonder whether the talking up of Sebelius’s chances in recent days has been part of the pressure that Barack is putting on Hillary to find a solution to his, quite understandable, concerns about the role of Bill.

There’s one other dimension to the gender issue and that relates to McCain. There have been persistent reports that he has called his wife a “c**t” in public. That certainly won’t endear him to the females in the older age groups who are said to be most upset by Hillary’s failure.

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  • Mike Smithson

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