Was the postal vote battle the real decider? This table appears in the Evening Standard tonight and shows the number of postal votes issue in all but three of London’s boroughs. The total is 559,892 and I’ve just been doing some quick calculations to compare the number with a selection of the number of votes cast four years ago. For comparison I took the total first preferences from 2004 for Norris and Livingstone and then expressed this data as a…
The Evening Standard’s final YouGov poll of the mayoral campaign has just been published and the figures are exactly as was reported here at 9.27 pm last night. On first preferences it is BORIS 43%: KEN 36%: PADDICK 13%. After the redistribution of second preferences it splits BORIS 53%: KEN 47% From the poll detail it appears that there has been a hardening up of support by party allegiance. Two days ago 87% of those who have told the firm…
But has YouGov got this one right? The former political journalist and one of the founders of YouGov, Peter Kellner, was reported to be quipping to colleagues yesterday: “One thing is certain: by Friday night – either Ken Livingstone or I will be out of a job”. For of the four firms that have surveyed Londoners only his firm, the controversial online pollster YouGov, has consistently reported significant margins for the Tory contender. The other firms – ICM, MRUK and…
Is Boris about to become the next Mayor? I have just received information from a source who has proved totally reliable in the past about the YouGov poll that will be published in the Evening Standard tomorrow. This is the final survey of the campaign and according to the information I have been given Boris is leading Ken 44%-36% on first preferences. After second preferences that becomes 53% to 47%. The same source has given me advance information about other…
The 11/8 on more than 43% seems like value bet As can probably be gathered from the content of recent posts I am quite long on Boris. My reading of the polls it that he stands a very good chance of winning on Friday and I’ve been betting accordingly. The only circumstance I can foresee of him not making it is if there is a very high turnout. One senior Labour spinner told me yesterday that he thought Ken would…
Will playing the victim card galvanise the activists? Reproduced above is part of a press release issued this morning by Team Ken in what will probably be the last big move of the campaign. It consists of an attack on the planned YouGov poll that will be published tomorrow as well as the more detailed case of the complaint against the pollster that has been made to the Market Research Society. The objectives appear to be to further smear YouGov,…
Can Labour contain the damage with an ultra-short campaign? To all those outside London who have been saying that we have been over-doing the Boris-Ken contest can I say three words – Crewe and Nantwich. For after the London result on Friday the main UK domestic story will be the by election in the Cheshire seat. This site follows the key action and nothing else will happen in the coming months that will provide such a good test of opinion…
Monday saw a massive 115,794 page down-loads I’ve just got the traffic figures for the site for yesterday when there were 115,794 separate page downloads – only the second time we have broken through the 100k mark. The last time was that Saturday in October when Gordon called off the election. Also April has already become the site’s busiest ever month even though there is still a day and a bit to go. Total page down-loads are 1,667,234 which exceeds…