Will this man wield the knife?

Will this man wield the knife?

What role does John Hutton have yet to play? It was Michael Heseltine who famously remarked on his own failed bid to become Prime Minister that “He who wields the knife will never wear the crown”. This oft-repeated dictum has since played its part in preventing leadership coups, by tempering the ambition of those who would otherwise seek to overthrown their leader. This week saw fevered speculation, first Jack Straw posing for photos in the Sunday Papers, then Harriet Harman…

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How much does military service count?

How much does military service count?

What is the impact of a nominee for POTUS having worn the uniform? “To err is human; to forgive, divine. Neither is the stated policy of the United States Marine Corps.” During the final stages of the primary season, when McCain was already the presumptive nominee but Clinton and Obama were still fighting their way to the Democratic nomination, I commented that the three candidates were all suited to different variants of the job. Rather glibly, I suggested that I…

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Who should be most pleased that Labour sacked Tony?

Who should be most pleased that Labour sacked Tony?

The cross-party movements when the counter-factual was put We’ve now got the detailed data from this morning’s YouGov poll in the Daily Telegraph which had these latest party shares: CON 47%: LAB 25%: LD 16% The main interest has been on how having David Miliband as leader would make almost no difference whatsoever and the tantalising information on what people say they would do if Tony could come back. This is clearly a fantasy world but the Blair as leader…

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PB Election Countdown: Our new monthly tracker survey

PB Election Countdown: Our new monthly tracker survey

After our Glasgow East success what about the General Election? On the first Friday of every month I’m planning a new tracker survey of the PB community. What are our thoughts about the coming general election? What do we think the outcome is likely to be? Last week, of course, a similar prediction survey for the Glasgow East by-election had it 50:50 between Labour and the SNP with the latter being just a few votes ahead. This compared with the…

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Electoral Commission blow for the anti-Ashcroft plan

Electoral Commission blow for the anti-Ashcroft plan

Will this mean that the Tories will win even more marginals? While the political world has been focussed on Labour’s by-election defeat in Glasgow and the possibility of a challenge to Brown’s leadership there’s another development this morning that has the potential to have an even bigger impact on the outcome of the next general election. For the body that oversees elections – the Electoral Commission – is, according to the main lead on Guardian On-line overnight, suggesting that the…

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Has YouGov got some good news for Dave?

Has YouGov got some good news for Dave?

Is Miliband beating Brown in the Telegraph’s poll? The big Labour leadership news overnight looks set to be a YouGov poll matching Gordon Brown up against the man who he could be facing in a challenge for his job – David Miliband. We have not, as yet, got any numbers but my guess is that it will show that the Foreign Secretary is ahead by a big margin. If that is the case then it will add a new dimension…

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Will Gordon really fight them on the beaches?

Will Gordon really fight them on the beaches?

Screen shot from BBC North East Or would he follow his normal practice and stand aside? One of the strong messages coming from the Brown camp in the past thirty-six hours is that he would not budge and would fight to the end if challenged. By this they mean, I guess, that anybody wanting to take him on would have to go through all of Labour convoluted process which involves, initially, getting one eight of the parliamentary party to support…

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Will polling match-ups be Gord’s secret weapon?

Will polling match-ups be Gord’s secret weapon?

What’s the point of switching leaders if the ratings won’t go up? I’m still in France with only minimal internet access and have been unable to follow the chain of events that David Miliband’s Guardian article has set off. But one thing is clear – the Foreign Secretary’s action has put what people were talking about privately right onto the public agenda and it’s hard to see any going back. The PM’s aides have always been ferocious in the defence…

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