Should your money be following the Populus focus group?

Should your money be following the Populus focus group?

If there’s going to be a contest could one of these win? With all the focus over the past 24 hours being the growing number of Labour figures calling for a leadership contest the finding of today’s Populus leadership focus group have not merited the attention they perhaps deserve. For the pollster put together a group of 20 Labour voters from 2005 and showed them clips of Brown and six possible replacements. As they watched they registered their reaction by…

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Was this the right choice to face Salmond?

Was this the right choice to face Salmond?

How will Iain Gray perform as Leader of Labour at Holyrood? The Scottish Labour Party has chosen Iain Gray MSP (East Lothian) to be its new leader, with Johann Lamont as his Deputy. Cathy Jamieson, whom HenryG thought might prove successful, came in second, with Andy Kerr coming third. Gray takes over after the resignation of Wendy Alexander, and will face Alex Salmond across the Holyrood chamber. The question to which we must immediately turn our thoughts is whether Gray…

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Does Joe Biden have a point?

Does Joe Biden have a point?

Would Hillary have been a better choice for VP? It’s been a rough couple of weeks for the Obama-Biden ticket. The stadium finale of the Denver Convention was overshadowed by the historic choice of Governor Sarah Palin by John McCain, the GOP has rediscovered some optimism, and the Republican ticket has taken a lead in the national polls. Much of this is attributed to Palin, who has both energised the Conservative base, and injected some glamour and hope into what…

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How seriously should we take this?

How seriously should we take this?

Is it the start of something or will it fizzle out? The news this afternoon of the move by the Government whip, Siobhain McDonagh, on the Labour leadership has taken many people aback and it’s hard to assess how serious it it. On the face of it she seems prepared to sacrifice her job in order to bring the leadership issue out into the open. Whether it will or not we will have to see. Clearly for such an initiative…

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Could Kitty be Labour’s Sarah Palin?

Could Kitty be Labour’s Sarah Palin?

Would a new completely new face in 2010 be a “game changer”? Over the past couple of hours I have been looking over ministerial lists, scouring Wikipedia biogs and viewing video clips to see if I can I identify a “Labour Sarah Palin”. My starting point is the notion that the only realistic way that Labour can stave off defeat in 20 months time is by replacing its leader with someone completely new and exciting – say by March 2010….

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Are we seeing the ending of the Tory voters’ strike?

Are we seeing the ending of the Tory voters’ strike?

Why understanding 1997 is the key to the 2010 result? There’s a widespread perception that in 1997 Tony Blair got his massive landslide victory because huge numbers of Tories switched. This is wrong and does not fit with the voting numbers – for Labour won even though it got fewer votes than Neil Kinnock secured five years earlier. In 1992 Labour chalked up 11,559,735 votes. Five years later Tony Blair got in with his party getting a smaller number 11,348,623….

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Is the fall of Thatcher still casting a shadow?

Is the fall of Thatcher still casting a shadow?

Guest slot by David Herdson – “Prime Ministers fall but rarely” That the events of November 1990 are still casting their shadow over British politics nearly eighteen years on is testament to not only their drama but also their rarity. Throughout the twentieth century, Margaret Thatcher was the only prime minister so unambiguously forced out by her own party. The others who left mid-term did so of their own accord, because of the lack of a parliamentary majority, through ill-health,…

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YouGov marginals poll points to a Tory majority of 110+

YouGov marginals poll points to a Tory majority of 110+

There’s a new poll out this afternoon from YouGov which was commissioned by Channel 4 news and which suggests that David Cameron is heading for a three-figure majority. The poll has been done on a format that I have never seen before – those questioned were limited to 60 key constituencies where Labour is defending majorities of between 6 per cent and 14 per cent. So it’s unlike the standard marginal polls that we have seen in the past where…

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