How long before McCain’s the Betfair favourite?

How long before McCain’s the Betfair favourite?

But will Palin’s Teflon coating wear off? The money has continued to pile on John McCain in the White House betting and the Betfair market has him at the equivalent of 43% chance. This compares with a 44.5% chance on the Iowa Electronic Markets where “shares” in political futures are traded. The Dublin-based Intrade now has McCain as favourite at 50.5%. This trend will continue until the poll swing to the Republican falters or moves in the opposite direction and…

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How big a gaffe was this?

How big a gaffe was this?

Could relations with a McCain White House be undermined? Lots of coverage in the UK papers this morning of the article that appeared under Gordon Brown’s name in a specialised publication in which it appeared that the PM was backing Obama over McCain in the White House race. The gentle mocking by the McCain campaign is reflected in the headline in the panel above with the term – “The Coveted Gordon Brown endorsement”. The piece opens “Far be it from…

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Is McCain betting too much on Palin?

Is McCain betting too much on Palin?

What if “Troopergate” gets out of hand? So the White House race has come alive and promises to be an absorbing contest which will grip us for seven weeks or so and maybe even beyond. “Lipstickgate” has been the issue of the day and the way it has developed reflects the changing media narrative – Obama is under fire as the focus goes on Sarah Palin. On the polling front the Gallup daily tracking poll is now showing a 5%…

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Is Crewe the answer to Maguire and Kellner?

Is Crewe the answer to Maguire and Kellner?

Does Brown really have a chance of saving the day? There’s an interesting piece by Kevin Maguire of the Mirror quoting an as yet to be published article by Peter Kellner of YouGov suggesting that Labour might still have a chance. The arguments are ones we have seen before – governments, it is said recover from mid-term lows and we all know that the Tories need a vote margin of 6% just to be equal on seats and a 10%…

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Is Cameron now becoming acceptable to the Guardian?

Is Cameron now becoming acceptable to the Guardian?

Could this add to Dave’s problems with right-wingers? The first paragraph of the Guardian’s editorial today is featured above and raises a question that is quite revolutionary for the paper – the idea that a Tory government might not be the worst possible outcome at the general election. Revolutionary because one of the bedrock certainties of the media and politics is that the Guardian is the most anti-Tory of what used to be called the broad-sheet press. Just recall the…

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Will this be another boost for McCain?

Will this be another boost for McCain?

Should foreigners just keep out? A new poll for the BBC World Service poll shows that in all 22 countries surveyed, people wanted Obama to be the next President rather than McCain. The Democratic nominee was preferred by a four to one margin on average across the 22,000 people polled. But is this exactly the sort of thing that will do Obama harm? We all recall the Guardian’s crazy exercise in 2004 when readers were encouraged to send emails to…

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Are these the scariest figures of all for Labour?

Are these the scariest figures of all for Labour?

Even without the “adjustments” things look awful One of the nagging doubts at the back of my mind about the current Tory poll leads is that much of it could be down to modern polling techniques. Could it be, I’ve been asking myself as I work out how much to risk on the spread markets, that part of Labour’s deficits are down to the adjustments that pollsters make and not fundamental shifts of opinion? The new polling techniques have not…

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How can any of them rebel after this?

How can any of them rebel after this?

Will the Birmingham away-day keep Gord in his job? Well there they are after a summer of apparent discontent and whispering and the cabinet all travel to Birmingham to hold the first meeting outside London for ninety years. Every single one of them joins in by doing outside public events before the meeting itself which receives much more media attention than usual. And judging by the statements of loyalty and support afterwards it appears that this novel move by Brown…

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