How long before McCain’s the Betfair favourite?

How long before McCain’s the Betfair favourite?


    But will Palin’s Teflon coating wear off?

The money has continued to pile on John McCain in the White House betting and the Betfair market has him at the equivalent of 43% chance.

This compares with a 44.5% chance on the Iowa Electronic Markets where “shares” in political futures are traded. The Dublin-based Intrade now has McCain as favourite at 50.5%.

This trend will continue until the poll swing to the Republican falters or moves in the opposite direction and a lot could depend on whether Sarah Palin’s Teflon-coating continues to hold.

As MSNBC’s blog notes there is a growing list of negative material about her time as Alaska governor building up – none of which has had legs. Will that last? My guess is not but it could take some time.

In the UK bookmaker betting you can still get 13/8 on a McCain victory which seems great value. How long will that price last?

Mike Smithson

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