Was someone manipulating the markets?

Was someone manipulating the markets?

Was this political manoevering or simply very bad betting? One of the best sources for anyone interested in US politics, Congressional Quarterly, is running with a story that a single, unnamed punter has been responsible for the pricing anomaly on InTrade that has seen John McCain’s stock hold a higher price than on Betfair, or the Iowa Electronic Markets. Apparently, the ‘institutional’ investor purchased hundreds of thousands of dollars’ worth of McCain contracts, at inferior prices than were available elsewhere,…

Read More Read More

Fancy your chances on this innovative US market?

Fancy your chances on this innovative US market?

Peter the Punter on the “McCain Firewall Finder Ladbrokes have of late become rather more innovative with their political betting markets. No doubt the credit goes to their politics expert, PB regular Matthew Shaddick [Shadsy]. He has come up with an intriguing angle on the US Presidency. The main contest looks pretty moribund now from a betting perspective and most of the value has been drained from the individual States in the Electoral Votes markets. Shadsy has livened things up…

Read More Read More

Could the next polls put Labour back in contention?

Could the next polls put Labour back in contention?

What if Cameron’s no longer seen as Prime Minister-designate? For reasons that I’ve never been able to fathom most of the regular monthly polls that we see in the UK are published in the final part of the month. So this weekend and in the days after that I am expecting at least two ComRes polls, two YouGov polls, one ICM survey and the October political monitor by Ipsos-MORI. There might be others including the non-registered BPIX. One or possibly…

Read More Read More

Is “Joe the Plumber’s” story starting to unravel?

Is “Joe the Plumber’s” story starting to unravel?

Should the McCain team have vetted their new star? In the tough world of the American election only eighteen days before polling anything that might be seen to give an advantage to one candidate or another is immediately picked over and studied to the nth degree to see if it is what it says it is. Twenty four hours ago the big plus for the Republicans in the final presidential debate was “Joe the Plumber” who had confronted Obama last…

Read More Read More

PaddyPower pay out on Obama

PaddyPower pay out on Obama

Now there’s no need to wait for my 50/1 winnings For the past few days I’ve looking forward to the big pay-day that I expect on November 5th – the day after the US presidential election when it looks as though Barack Obama will win a convincing victory. Well that’s been brought forward nearly three weeks. PaddyPower have just paid out and I’m just about to transfer winnings on my bets at 33/1 and the one I will bore people…

Read More Read More

BBC bias – are these the guilty two?

BBC bias – are these the guilty two?

Did Thatcher and Campbell make editors scared of whoever was in power? After refraining from entering the “biased BBC” debate I’ve decided to write two pieces covering the two elements which I think are behind the concerns. One is that I believe that the BBC is scared of government – whoever is in power and secondly there is my old cliche – the media narrative. I should explain that from 1971 to 1984 I was a journalist with the BBC…

Read More Read More

Could the bail-out deal come unstuck?

Could the bail-out deal come unstuck?

What are the dangers of renegotiating the deal? After all the benefit that Brown and Labour has got out of the bail-out deal this morning’s Guardian front page could make uncomfortable reading and create a potentially tricky problem. The challenge is that Lloyds TSB is lobbying for less stringent terms being imposed on it in return for the injection of tax-payer cash and in the current context that looks like a hard political sell. Under the arrangement that was hammered…

Read More Read More

Will it be another gaffe-free performance from Obama?

Will it be another gaffe-free performance from Obama?

So here we are – the final debate of the 2008 US Presidential Election which is taking place at Hofstra University in Hempstead, Long Island. Although tonight the main focus on the economy the big question is whether, even at this late stage, John McCain can force Obama into an error that could change the race. If the junior senator from Illinois survives then he could become an even hotter favourite than he already is. A Politico analysis summed it…

Read More Read More