What will ICM be saying tonight? As site regulars will know I have theory, based on nearly three years of records, that the single most important driver in the CON-LAB poll numbers is the amount of media coverage that Cameron gets. If he’s been making the headlines or leading the bulletins then his party’s ratings go up – if he’s been blanked out of the news agenda then there will be a decline. This is about the quantity of coverage…
UPDATED Were spread punters premature in switching to the Tories? After reporting that the spread markets had moved sharply back to the Tories I have now picked up on the YouGov poll in the Daily Mirror which shows a narrowing of the Tory lead to 8% – although Cameron’s party share is still comfortably in the 40s. In the panel above I reproduce a seat projection from the UK Polling Report calculator which suggests that what appeared a certainty until…
Are they betting that the media narrative is wrong? Spread betters who risk hundreds and sometimes thousands of pounds on the outcome of the next election have moved sharply against Labour. There have been shifts of a massive eight seats on the markets where the number of MPs the parties will end up with are traded like stocks and shares. This in spite of the big opinion poll stories in the papers yesterday about the move back to Labour in…
Click graphic to play video Bush’s former Secretary of State endorses the Senator from Illinois In a powerful appearance on Meet The Press which is well worth viewing, Colin Powell today set out the reasons why he will be casting his vote for Barack Obama, praising his steadiness, intellectual curiosity and vigour, and his depth of knowledge. He described him as a “transformational figure” of substance who had fought a campaign that was inclusive and inspirational, one that reached out…
Is Ed now better value than David? In the light of all that’s happened over the last few extraordinary weeks, including Brown’s role in managing the economic crisis and even a Republican administration buying shares in American banks, now may be a good time to reconsider the Labour leadership market – especially as last night’s polls suggest that the party’s performance remains distinctly anaemic. The table above is courtesy of Shadsy and “The Magic Sign”, and there are one or…
So was that the Labour recovery that was? First of all – hands up – I got it wrong. My reading of the extraordinary events of the past fortnight was that this would give Labour a significant boost and that the crisis was a potential game-changer that could alter our view of the next election. This is how I’ve been betting. We’ve all seen the incredible transformation that has come over Brown – the international acclaim that has given him…
The first full voting intention poll following the bail-out plan and Brown being feted round the world is very disappointing for Labour. The figures are above and show the Tories still in the 40s with Brown’s party nine points adrift. I was expecting something much closer for the fieldwork took place before Cameron’s big speech when all the focus was on the Prime Minister. There might be other polls tonight which could be better for Labour. There is one consolation…
Where’s the value in the Senatorial betting markets? With most eyes on the Presidential election, and much of the value squeezed out of the White House political betting markets, it is easy to forget the glut of interesting Congressional and Gubernatorial races that offer to the political punter the opportunity to find a little extra value. House races are strange beasts, and the sheer number of races (435, of which maybe 150 are truly competitive) means that betting on individual…