Are MPs reading Glenrothes right?

Are MPs reading Glenrothes right?

Why the split with the media views? This morning the “insiders and experts” who make up the PH100 gave their final verdict on today’s by election in Fife – and their view is that it’s very close but that Labour might just do it. Interestingly PH reports a massive split in the panel between the politicians and the media representatives: “The media panellists are political editors, leading commentators and executives. A solid majority of them are forecasting a win for…

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What are the betting lessons from the 2008 race?

What are the betting lessons from the 2008 race?

Share your experiences The US presidential election is by far and away the biggest political betting event of them all and my guess is that the level of activity that we have seen in the past year will exceed what’s wagered on the next UK general election. Hopefully we’ve all managed to get a bit of sleep and the lucky ones have been able to to start to receive some of their winnings although those with positions linked to electoral…

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Have punters got Labour’s chances about right?

Have punters got Labour’s chances about right?

Will it be a humiliation for Gord? As has been reported here before the date for the Glenrothes by-election was originally fixed for tomorrow because it was hoped that in the US election aftermath then yet another Labour defeat would hardly get noticed. Well things have changed since the date was set and we are now experiencing the renaissance of Gordon following his actions in the bank bailout crisis. Although this has hhad hardly any impact on the voting intention…

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Was Obama’s community organiser background his secret weapon?

Was Obama’s community organiser background his secret weapon?

Did this make the difference in the key states? One of the interesting conversations I got into at the PB election session last night was on the importance to the election of Obama’s early career as a community organiser – something that many GOP commentators have been quick to deride. For his instinctive understanding of how to mobilise the weakest and most vulnerable members of society has, surely, played a key part in leading such a successful campaign. Looking back…

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How long until we know for sure?

How long until we know for sure?

What time should we be expecting it to be all over? We all know that tonight could be a long night – I’ve taken tomorrow off work, and am not expecting to sleep before breakfast. We are happily ensconsed at a trading floor in Islington, eating fine take-away, and drinking beer, whilst eagerly scrutinising the exit polls (with extreme skepticism) and leaks from the field. We have a giant map, drawn by yours truly on the white board, and PB.com’s…

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Is Indiana the pointer to something big?

Is Indiana the pointer to something big?

Is this being premature? As can be seen above the Daily Express has called it for Barack Obama even though only a minute fraction of votes have been counted. But voting in one of the early states, Indiana, is pointing to a pssible Obama victory which would suggest a result above many people’s predictions. There is, however, a long way to go. Within the next hour we should start to get a good picture of where this is going. If…

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Welcome to election night on PB?

Welcome to election night on PB?

Voting in the first states to close their polling booths is due to end at 11pm UK time – and at that point we can expect to see some firm information from the exit polls. The networks will start calling states based on the the polls and early results from that time. So in a very short period we should get some feel about the possible outcome. If the main PB site goes down tonight then please switch to PB…

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