How long until we know for sure?

How long until we know for sure?

    What time should we be expecting it to be all over?

We all know that tonight could be a long night – I’ve taken tomorrow off work, and am not expecting to sleep before breakfast. We are happily ensconsed at a trading floor in Islington, eating fine take-away, and drinking beer, whilst eagerly scrutinising the exit polls (with extreme skepticism) and leaks from the field.

We have a giant map, drawn by yours truly on the white board, and’s most-earnest punters scouring the markets for value. I’m surrounded by screens, and computers, with about 7 US Networks talking to me at once. I am in my element!

If Obama is polling above 65% in Marion, Porter and Lake Counties in Indiana, then he stands a good chance of winning the state – in which case, we’re looking at about 370 Electoral College votes (I figure North Dakota, Montana, and Missouri would go if Indiana did). Conversely, if McCain wins Indiana handily, and North Carolina and Virginia are too close to call then we might not know anything for certain until 3am GMT.

It’s going to be a great night!

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