What are the betting lessons from the 2008 race?

What are the betting lessons from the 2008 race?

    Share your experiences

The US presidential election is by far and away the biggest political betting event of them all and my guess is that the level of activity that we have seen in the past year will exceed what’s wagered on the next UK general election.

Hopefully we’ve all managed to get a bit of sleep and the lucky ones have been able to to start to receive some of their winnings although those with positions linked to electoral college votes might have to wait a bit.

Now might be a good time to look back on this election and reflect on the betting lessons of the nominee battles, the V-P pick markets, and of course on the election itself. Four things stand out for me:-

Iowa and New Hampshire are critical and there’s a long history of early favourites going down in these first two electoral tests. Hillary’s disaster in Iowa followed what happened to another odds on favourite for the democratic nomination, Howard Dean, four years earlier.

Betting on the V-P picks is a mugs game – something that I said repeatedly during the summer and advice that I did not follow to my cost. The choice is a personal decision and it’s very difficult to read as we saw with both of the picks this year. If someone is being tipped heavily then it could be just a smoke screen.

Individual state betting can be highly profitable for those who can identify the trends and who follow the polling. Very often betting bargains appear from both the traditional bookies and on the exchanges and those who have put the work in can reap the benefit.

The PB threads have been an invaluable resource. For those who follow the discussions there have been some brilliant tips and insights. But some contributors have been looking at what’s happening solely from the political outcome that they would like. Others have been interested in making good bets and there have been some great tips for those who act fast. Even on Tuesday night the main threads were often way ahead of the news organisations in spotting what was happening.

I am sure that that many in the PB community have experiences that they can share.

Glenrothes by-election: latest prices

Mike Smithson

Comments are closed.