What time should we be expecting it to be all over? We all know that tonight could be a long night – I’ve taken tomorrow off work, and am not expecting to sleep before breakfast. We are happily ensconsed at a trading floor in Islington, eating fine take-away, and drinking beer, whilst eagerly scrutinising the exit polls (with extreme skepticism) and leaks from the field. We have a giant map, drawn by yours truly on the white board, and PB.com’s…
Is this being premature? As can be seen above the Daily Express has called it for Barack Obama even though only a minute fraction of votes have been counted. But voting in one of the early states, Indiana, is pointing to a pssible Obama victory which would suggest a result above many people’s predictions. There is, however, a long way to go. Within the next hour we should start to get a good picture of where this is going. If…
Voting in the first states to close their polling booths is due to end at 11pm UK time – and at that point we can expect to see some firm information from the exit polls. The networks will start calling states based on the the polls and early results from that time. So in a very short period we should get some feel about the possible outcome. If the main PB site goes down tonight then please switch to PB…
How the battle shaped up It’s quite a shock, looking at the chart showing the implied probabilities of becoming president, that just a year ago the aggregate chance of their success as rated by UK punters was put at a paltry 13%. The final play-off on November 4th 2008, as we were all the pundits were telling us at the time, was going to be between Hilary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani. Both McCain and Obama were helped enormously by massive…
Learn from the costly lessons of 2004 Four years ago a lot of punters lost a lot of money by reading too much into the leaks and then the official exit polls themselves. This is a note that has been issued by John McCain’s head of polling – Bill McInturff – which I am reproducing in full. For the record I have decided not to bet at all today. In 2004 I came close to losing a small fortune when…
Should Westminster heed John Curtice’s words? While we wait for the polling stations to open in America let’s focus for three or four hours on the political situation in the UK and some timely words from Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University in today’s Independent. Under a headline “Banks bailout fails to boost Labour ratings” Curtice is quoted as saying: “..The mood of new-found optimism that seems to have enveloped the party at Westminster in recent weeks certainly seems to…
Is there money to be made guessing the timing? After paying out on winning Obama bets a fortnight ago the Irish bookmaker, PaddyPower, has made another betting move which could infuriate those who still harbour hopes that somehow the polls are wrong and that 72 year old Senator from Arizona can win tomorrow. They’ve opened betting on the timing of his concession speech- which is clearly linked very closely to the time-table of state results that we will see overnight….
Do the SNP justify their odds-on status? A week ago I suggested here that the 7/4 Labour price that was then available was a good value bet and was where my money was going. My reading at the time was that this was a 50-50 chance so odds greater than evens represented value. Well we’ve moved on a week, we’ve had a so-called “Glenrothes poll”, and I’ve had chance to consult the person I most trust to read Scottish politics….