Do the SNP justify their odds-on status?
A week ago I suggested here that the 7/4 Labour price that was then available was a good value bet and was where my money was going. My reading at the time was that this was a 50-50 chance so odds greater than evens represented value.
Well we’ve moved on a week, we’ve had a so-called “Glenrothes poll”, and I’ve had chance to consult the person I most trust to read Scottish politics. And the result is that I’ve switched my betting to the SNP – which thanks to the betting move to the Labour last week – has been at better prices than were available then.
I’m told that the SNP machine is working well and the party was flooded with volunteers over the weekend.
The factor that will be key is which party is going to be better at getting its vote out on a dark and perhaps damp evening in November. It’s here that I judge the SNP to be better placed.
Cast your mind back to a similar dark evening in the neighbouring constituency of Dunfermline in early February 2006 and remember the shock when Labour could not beat off the challenge from then leaderless and troubled Lib Dems.
Whatever the media narrative might be suggesting at the moment the most recent national poll has them 14% behind the Tories. In February 2006 they were neck and neck.