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England’s senior teams qualifying for football world cup finals are rarer than a decent Radiohead album or Boris Johnson telling the truth so the Lionesses reaching today’s world cup final is a pretty special occasion which is why the country wants Prince William to be there in Sydney this morning. The royals have erred in not sending somebody to Australia, you know the royals have screwed up badly when even the pro-monarchy Daily Mail criticises Prince William’s failure to attend….

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The link to the above from the Commons library is well worth saving because of the mass of information that is available about every single Commons constituency with the new boundaries. It is well-ordered and the more you become familiar with what is available the better. Thanks to David Cowling for the link. Mike Smithson

7 murdered babies. Attempts to murder 7 more. A hospital’s reputation in ruins. (Oh – and another inquiry to report on all the lessons to be learnt. Like the ones not learnt from previous inquiries. Just as these ones won’t be.) It is not too cynical to say that care for the hospital’s reputation – rather than investigating serious concerns about staff responsible for babies in their care – was almost certainly one of the main reasons why senior NHS…

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This polling is, of course, completely hypothetical but it does show the ongoing problem that Starmer’s predecessor had. By the time of GE2019 he was a huge negative for Labour. An Opinium on the day poll in December 2019 found that the overwhelming reason why former GE2017 LAB voters had switched was because of Corbyn – NOT because of Boris Johnson. My problem with the poll is what it is asking of those sampled. Whatever it is interesting nevertheless. Mike…

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I like this from the Biden Team – a campaign ad consisting of an extract from a Trump speech. Very clearly the strongest message Biden has is the need to stop Trump who is liked by his base but that is simply not enough. Both of them are too old but it is hard to see the November election being other than a repeat of WH2020. Mike Smithson

This is a very good point from @PaulMotty because if Trump is struggling in Georgia the range of options to secure the 270 electoral college votes required for victory are very limited indeed. A big point about US Presidential Elections is that they are won and lost in the battleground states almost all of which allocate their electoral college votes on a winner takes all basis. Amongst all the states only Maine and Nebraska, do not have winner-takes all. In…

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This is an unusual question but the numbers are very interesting all the same. The finding that will most encourage LAB is the total of unsatisfied down at 24%.

This polling shouldn’t surprise us – how Americans view the actions of Trump is very much linked to their party allegiance. A big question is how would the former President would perform if he was to be the nominee at WH2024 and the numbers to watch are those voters who tell pollsters that they are independents. I would suggest based on the above that this group are more negative than positive about the former President. On Smarkets the Democrats remain…

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