Following in the footsteps of StJohn’s crossword and Rod Crosby’s UK political quiz, please see below an international quiz which should hopefully get a few heads scratched. I won’t be around to comment on answers as they come through, but will aim to be back on later this evening when I’ll present a full set of results. There are no prizes, but as Peter Snow used to say, “it’s just a bit of fun…” 1. Which book features canine characters…
Today’s Balance of Money Index: CON MAJ 54 On Thursday we published the first PB “Balance of Money Index” which seeks to translate current opinion on the betting markets into a single number representing an election outcome. The first one, less than four days ago, pointed to a Tory majority of just 26 seats. Since then there has been the Green arrest and two new opinion polls showing moves to the Conservatives with ICM pointing to a 45% share for…
Why hasn’t Dominic Grieve been a bit more high profile? It’s not often that a new government in Europe leads one to the Conservative frontbench, but another Grand Coalition will take office in Austria early next week, and as with the previous government, it’s headed up by a Social Democrat Chancellor while the conservative People’s Party holds the remaining big posts of Finance, Foreign Affairs and the Interior Ministry. With the “comparative politics hat” firmly affixed, a UK equivalent of…
Cameron – “this is a watershed moment”: Brown must speak out How will Clegg’s aeroplane comments play in the Lib Dems? Writing in the News of the World, David Cameron calls on the PM to “make his opinions clear” on the Green arrest. “…does he think it is right for an MP who has apparently done nothing to breach our national security to have his home and office searched by a dozen counter-terrorist police officers, his phone, BlackBerry and computers…
CONSERVATIVES 43% (+3) LABOUR 32% (-5) LIB DEMS 15% (+3) Mori jumps from 3-point lead to 11-point lead According to comments on the previous thread, Sky News is reporting that in tomorrow’s Observer newspaper, Ipsos Mori have a new poll which is startlingly different to their previous offering, which famously reduced the Tory lead to three points. Their latest poll is far more in line with what we have seen recently from other pollsters, such as yesterday’s ICM. With the…
Does Sir Hugh Orde benefit the most? Paddy Power (who else) are running a market on who is going to be appointed the next permanent Commissioner of the Metropolitan Police Service. The two clear favourites for the job, according to media sources, were Sir Paul Stephenson (the Deputy Commissioner, and currently Acting Commissioner following Sir Ian Blair’s departure yesterday) and Sir Hugh Orde (the Chief Constable of the Police Service of Northern Ireland). After the debacle of police officers from…
A Special Comment… If kind readers will indulge me in the absence of Our Genial Host, I found myself last night watching Keith Olbermann’s recent ‘Special Comment’ segments – usually a combination of unashamedly personal analysis and self-righteous ranting, variously covering California’s Proposition 8, the death of Habeas Corpus, and most famously the Geraldine Ferraro comments about Barack Obama. Looking at ‘Green-gate’ (as some immutable law of reporting would have us call it), I couldn’t help but imagine: What Would…
CONSERVATIVES 45% (+3) LABOUR 30% (-1) LIB DEMS 18% (-1) Which post PBR survey do you believe? The fieldwork took place before the Green case blew up but after the YouGov survey that we saw on Wednesday. This will give a big boost to the Tories and on these figures the party would be returned with a near landslide majority. ICM’s methodology is more favourable to the Lib Dems of any of the pollsters and this is having a big…