Could the Tories have fired their big guns too early? In one sense today is a great victory for the opposition parties. Normally this annual set-piece event provides the peg for acres and acres of coverage on what the government is doing with the Tories and the Lib Dems struggling to get a look in. Well with the Green arrest likely to be dominating the headlines tonight that should be a minus point to Brown Central. But don’t underestimate them…
How will his statement go down with worried MPs? One of the “smart” elements of the Green arrest was the timing. It happened just as Parliament was going into a five day recess ahead of the Queen’s Speech and the start of the new parliamentary year. This meant that there was no immediate platform for the issue of the police search of Green’s Commons’ office to be raised in the chamber. That all changes today and the Tories and the…
Cantor Spreadfair RIP Today has been a sad day for political gamblers who have used the Spreadfair spread-betting exchange. In common with some other gambling services from the group this was closed down yesterday and special arrangements are being to deal with the transition. It seem that there’s no worry about getting any money deposited with them back. The firm’s email says “Any funds that you have on deposit with us remain totally secure and any funds not required to…
What about William Hill’s 6/4 price? I have just got a bet on with William Hill at 6/4 that Jacqui Smith will “will cease to be Home Secretary before the next General Election takes place”. The bookie only allowed me £80 although I wanted to put on £1000 – because these seem great odds. Even if Smith survives the current “Green-gate” affair Labour Home Secretaries have a record of not lasting very long and something else, surely, could come along…
This is a table adapted from UK Polling Report showing all the published ICM polls during 2008. Below is a table showing all the ComRes polls, excluding last night’s sensational CON 37%: LAB 36%: LD 17%. We also had in the Observer in the Observer on Sunday the poll from Ipsos-MORI. I’ve not featured its 2008 table because it has gone through a big methodological change. My main observation from the two tables is that ICM is the more stable…
CONSERVATIVES 37% (-6) LABOUR 36% (+4) LIB DEMS 17% (+5) The above figures, now confirmed, show a massive difference compared with the latest ICM and MORI polls which had leads of 15% and 11% respectively. This represents a completely different picture of what is happening between the pollsters. ComRes weight by past vote and apply a strict turn-out filter – factors which tend to help the Tory figures. I assume that with this survey the firm is using its standard…
Can they beat the lawyer who represented Lord Levy The big development in “Green-Gate” was a news conference this afternoon involving the Home Office mole and his solicitor – the head of criminal law at Bindmans and the man who represented Lord Levy. Neil O’May ain’t going to come cheap and judging by the bits of the news conference that we saw he ain’t going to be a push-over either. As the BBC’s Nick Robinson describes it: “Mr Galley’s side…
Are we changing the political terms of trading? Everybody seems to be getting bogged down in the detail and is missing the big point – what Green did has been part and parcel of the political process for generations and it is a nonsense and an outrage that it should be regarded as a crime. James Forsyth sums it up well on the Spectator Coffeehouse blog: “If what Damian Green did was illegal, opposition politicians have been committing illegal acts…