Have the battlelines been drawn?

Have the battlelines been drawn?

Was this really the most socialist PBR since Sunny Jim? So with as much high drama as could be summoned, the Chancellor has delivered his Pre-Budget report, with the key measures of cutting VAT to 15% and raising the top-level of Income Tax not a surprise to anyone who reads the newspapers. The Shadow Chancellor issued a stinging rebuttal, though whilst the passion of the performance was undeniable, critics are characterising the lack of policy as meaning that the Tories…

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With all eyes on Westminster….

With all eyes on Westminster….

Darling’s statement – the continuation thread Alistair Darling has given his Pre-Budget Report speech, with the highlights being largely as expected: VAT cut from 17.5% to 15% for 13 months beginning on Monday, and an increase in the basic rate of Income Tax to 45% for those earning over £150,000. What had not been leaked was the increase in National Insurance Contributions by 0.5% from April 2011 which has been targetted by George Osborne in his rebuttal. Similarly, I would…

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Have the leaks been designed to wrong-foot Osborne?

Have the leaks been designed to wrong-foot Osborne?

Is today the start of the election campaign? Make no mistake: the “leaks” that we’ve been seeing ahead of this afternoon’s PBR statement by the Chancellor have nothing to do with smart journalism or a desire by ministers to be open and accountable. This is all deliberate, well planned and is about shaping the environment in which the statement is received and, of course, trying to get one over on George Osborne. And before you shout that this is unfair…

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Can only a step-change in opinion stop Cameron?

Can only a step-change in opinion stop Cameron?

Will the PBR make the media narrative a reality? It’s a measure of how completely potty the media has become in recent weeks that on the eve of the the PBR and all the talk of an early general election that there’s been an almost total news black-out on yesterday’s ICM showing the Tories on 42%, Labour on 31% with the Lib Dems scoring 19%. You would have thought that every little bit of polling data would have been devoured,…

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Israel’s locals – a pointer to the Knesset?

Israel’s locals – a pointer to the Knesset?

A guest article from Shneur Odze On 11th November there were local elections for directly elected mayors and local councillors. They were largely expected to prove a gauge for the general election in February. However commentators have been searching to see if any indicators exist. I feel there are one or two. For the past 35 years there has been a token protest party which changes at every general election, starting with Dash the original centrist party led by Israel’s…

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So you fancy spread betting for/against Labour?

So you fancy spread betting for/against Labour?

And this is just a week of polling! At the end of last week, with the finalisation of the result from Missouri the spread firms finally settled the White House race electoral college votes markets which many of us had been playing for months. For me, having an average Obama buy position of 320 ECVS, it meant that I won the difference between the bet and the outcome (365 ECVS) multiplied by my stake level. Nice but it would have…

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Hold your 2009 election date bets!

Hold your 2009 election date bets!

CONSERVATIVES 42% (-1) LABOUR 31% (+1) LIB DEMS 19% (+1) ICM reports an 11% Tory lead After all the election speculation following the non-past voted weighted MORI poll on Tuesday reports are coming in of a new ICM poll which puts the Tories 11% ahead. The main difference between ICM and MORI is that the former takes measures to ensure a politically balanced sample through past vote weighting. MORI doesn’t and as I was arguing on Wednesday the latest survey…

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How should we read Obama’s Cabinet choices?

How should we read Obama’s Cabinet choices?

And what else might happen in this term? I was a little surprised at the recent non-announcement that Hillary Clinton is to be offered the job of Secretary of State by President-Elect Obama. Unlike others, I see her as perfectly well qualified, and can understand that after having come so close to leading her party that her junior status in the Senate was not particularly appealing. I have no doubt that her network and reputation will allow her to do…

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