Will ID cards keep the Iraq switchers with the LDs? One of the great hopes which has sustained Labour during its recent bad times is that come the general election then many of the former supporters who voted Lib Dem in 2005 will return to the fold. For it will be recalled that this was the biggest voting dynamic in 2005. Much of Labour’s 6% decline on four years earlier could be put down to the large numbers who went…
Introducing PB’s new election “predictor” In the run-up to the 2005 General Election PB first started trying to produce a regular prediction of the likely outcome based on taking the average of opinion on the spread-betting commons seats markets. These are betting arenas where gamblers can be risking large amounts of cash “buying and selling” commons seats. The seat spreads that you see every day are a reflection of where the cash is going – hence the terms “Balance of…
How secure is Labour’s polling base? PB’s cartoonist, Marf of LondonSketchbook.com, has come up with another cracker which is probably not far off the mark in summing up the mood in Downing Street. For after being so far behind for so long Gord wouldn’t be human if he didn’t get a lift from another poll showing that Labour is getting quite close. He must be careful, however, not to see seen to be using the crisis for party political purposes….
The PMQs thread With the political atmosphere becoming highly charged we can, surely, expect a lively PMQs today? This kicks off at midday and lasts for half an hour. This will be the first time that Gord and Dave will have the opportunity to argue about the new economic strategy – for on Monday the battle was left to their proxies – both old boys of exclusive public schools – Alastair Darling and George Osborne. If Monday had been a…
CONSERVATIVES 40% (-1) LABOUR 36% (nc) LIB DEMS 14% (nc) Will this revive early election date speculation? A new YouGov poll that was carried out on Monday evening and throughout yesterday provides a lot of reassurance for Labour after the momentous statement by Chancellor Darling on Monday. The splits show almost most no change on the last survey from the firm and runs against much of the so called “informed” comment that we saw in the immediate aftermath of the…
How will Gord and Dave do tomorrow? In view of its importance in setting out the battlegrounds for the general election it’s hardly surprising that the political day has been dominated by skirmishes over yesterday’s statement by Chancellor Darling. We’ve seen the Tories arguing that the detail of the plans means that people earning as little as £19,000 a year will be worse off and questions over whether the new 45% tax rate will actually bring in more revenue. All…
Or are punters just wishful thinking? If the betting markets have got this one right then we should be seeing the post-budget polls showing a move away from Labour and for the Tories to be increasing their lead again. The chart shows just one market – the price converted into an implied probability of Labour securing an overall majority at the general election. Other general election markets have seen similar reactions with gamblers seeming to think that yesterday’s key statement…
But will it look differently by the weekend? A theme that’s taken up by many of the papers this morning is that yesterday’s statement by Chancellor Darling marked the end of New Labour – that creation fourteen and a half years ago that became such a powerful electoral force. Tony Blair and Gordon Brown made their party electable and led them out of the political wilderness through three stunning general election victories. Yesterday the party reverted to a more traditional…