CONFIRMED: Tory lead down to 1%

CONFIRMED: Tory lead down to 1%

CONSERVATIVES 37% (-6) LABOUR 36% (+4) LIB DEMS 17% (+5) The above figures, now confirmed, show a massive difference compared with the latest ICM and MORI polls which had leads of 15% and 11% respectively. This represents a completely different picture of what is happening between the pollsters. ComRes weight by past vote and apply a strict turn-out filter – factors which tend to help the Tory figures. I assume that with this survey the firm is using its standard…

Read More Read More

What sort of a battle has Labour got into?

What sort of a battle has Labour got into?

Can they beat the lawyer who represented Lord Levy The big development in “Green-Gate” was a news conference this afternoon involving the Home Office mole and his solicitor – the head of criminal law at Bindmans and the man who represented Lord Levy. Neil O’May ain’t going to come cheap and judging by the bits of the news conference that we saw he ain’t going to be a push-over either. As the BBC’s Nick Robinson describes it: “Mr Galley’s side…

Read More Read More

How can what Green did be a crime?

How can what Green did be a crime?

Are we changing the political terms of trading? Everybody seems to be getting bogged down in the detail and is missing the big point – what Green did has been part and parcel of the political process for generations and it is a nonsense and an outrage that it should be regarded as a crime. James Forsyth sums it up well on the Spectator Coffeehouse blog: “If what Damian Green did was illegal, opposition politicians have been committing illegal acts…

Read More Read More

Double Carpet’s Xmas International Quiz

Double Carpet’s Xmas International Quiz

Following in the footsteps of StJohn’s crossword and Rod Crosby’s UK political quiz, please see below an international quiz which should hopefully get a few heads scratched. I won’t be around to comment on answers as they come through, but will aim to be back on later this evening when I’ll present a full set of results. There are no prizes, but as Peter Snow used to say, “it’s just a bit of fun…” 1. Which book features canine characters…

Read More Read More

PB Index moves sharply to the Tories

PB Index moves sharply to the Tories

Today’s Balance of Money Index: CON MAJ 54 On Thursday we published the first PB “Balance of Money Index” which seeks to translate current opinion on the betting markets into a single number representing an election outcome. The first one, less than four days ago, pointed to a Tory majority of just 26 seats. Since then there has been the Green arrest and two new opinion polls showing moves to the Conservatives with ICM pointing to a 45% share for…

Read More Read More

Is he just keeping the seat warm for Davis?

Is he just keeping the seat warm for Davis?

Why hasn’t Dominic Grieve been a bit more high profile? It’s not often that a new government in Europe leads one to the Conservative frontbench, but another Grand Coalition will take office in Austria early next week, and as with the previous government, it’s headed up by a Social Democrat Chancellor while the conservative People’s Party holds the remaining big posts of Finance, Foreign Affairs and the Interior Ministry. With the “comparative politics hat” firmly affixed, a UK equivalent of…

Read More Read More

In the Sunday papers

In the Sunday papers

Cameron – “this is a watershed moment”: Brown must speak out How will Clegg’s aeroplane comments play in the Lib Dems? Writing in the News of the World, David Cameron calls on the PM to “make his opinions clear” on the Green arrest. “…does he think it is right for an MP who has apparently done nothing to breach our national security to have his home and office searched by a dozen counter-terrorist police officers, his phone, BlackBerry and computers…

Read More Read More

Mori give Conservatives a boost

Mori give Conservatives a boost

CONSERVATIVES 43% (+3) LABOUR 32% (-5) LIB DEMS 15% (+3) Mori jumps from 3-point lead to 11-point lead According to comments on the previous thread, Sky News is reporting that in tomorrow’s Observer newspaper, Ipsos Mori have a new poll which is startlingly different to their previous offering, which famously reduced the Tory lead to three points. Their latest poll is far more in line with what we have seen recently from other pollsters, such as yesterday’s ICM. With the…

Read More Read More