A guest slot by Bob Worcester – the founder of MORI (This is a specially adapted version for PB of an article produced by Bob Worcester for his new Vox Populi blogs on the Ipsos MORI site. The aim is to produce a monthly piece between now and the next election based on Bob’s personal experience of nearly 40 years conducting and observing polls and how they are reported) “Let’s look at the recordâ€, as the politicians say. Just this…
What will McCain’s spinners make of all this? For weeks I have been arguing that Obama has got to find a way of dealing with the Clinton supporter issue – many of whom feel, rightly or wrongly, that the nomination was stolen from the former first lady. Now, on the day of the roll call vote, party bosses have put into place an extraordinary plan to stop splits appearing on prime time television. So, according to the Independent, there will…
Will Americans be wary of giving the Democrats untrammelled power? In all the many conversations I have had this last year, I have not met a single politically-minded who believes that the Republican party can take back either the US House of Representatives, or the US Senate in November 2008. The first indications are that the Democrats will very easily pick up five seats in the Upper Chamber (VA, NH, NM, CO, AK) with some estimates reckoning 8 or 9…
Or are the fundementals just the same? With GB’s succeses in Beijing and the lack of any further moves on his leadership there is said to be a “mood of euphoria” surrounding the PM. The hope is that he’ll get through September unscathed so that his conference speech in Manchester will provide the platform for recovery. Brown is being helped as well by the dramatic political events across the Atlantic. For the next fortnight the main political focus wil be…
If he wins, might Obama choose a different running-mate in 2012? I posted a comment about a month ago raising a question that has been asked by several people on here, and that becomes more pertinent with the selection of Joe Biden as his running mate: Might Obama choose ‘an old hand’ in 2008 to allay fears about his inexperience, but then (if he wins) choose ‘a potential successor’ when running for re-election in 2012? The initial premise has been…
Will McCain now put a woman on his ticket? The McCain campaign wasted no time in putting out the above ad as part of its effort to exploit the Hillary factor within the Democratic party. For Barack himself the Hillary element could dominate the convention with the former First Lady speaking tomorrow night and Bill himself on the agenda for Wednesday. How are they going to play it? Meanwhile the former Clinton strategist who is now a fierce critic, Dick…
36 hours to go until the Democratic National Convention kicks-off in Colorado After a nine-and-a-half hour flight, and some incredibly poorly-planned packing, I’ve arrived in Denver! The city is already gearing up for the massive logistical challenge of catering for around 50,000 political junkies; airports on Terror Alert Orange, helpers with DNC badges everywhere, and customs officers managing cues of quintessentially English reporters delighted to be getting the best overseas gig of the year. I spent the flight sat next…
Or was the soaring price not a vote swinger after all? Until a few weeks ago when the cost of of a litre of diesel had reached the record high of £1.34 ministers and and a number of commentators were suggesting that this one of the big drivers behind Labour’s polling collapse. The view was that if the soaring world oil prices could come to an end and the price at the pumps started to decline then there would be…