Could the Speaker’s job now be on the line? Harriet Harman is in a very different category from every other member of the cabinet. For she owes her position of Deputy Leader to her successful campaign in last year’s election. Brown could sack her from his cabinet but he can’t fire her as his deputy. This has given an independence of action which she seems ready, when necessary, to use. As leader of the house she is in a position…
Is this how the Tories will always trap him? It has, as predicted, been a gripping afternoon and on balance I think that the government has lost some ground. I thought that the Speaker, Michael Martin, made the best of a very bad hand and his frank explanations of where things went wrong will have bought him some more time. But for me the really intriguing element was the way that senior Tory figures managed to trap Gordon using what…
Could the Tories have fired their big guns too early? In one sense today is a great victory for the opposition parties. Normally this annual set-piece event provides the peg for acres and acres of coverage on what the government is doing with the Tories and the Lib Dems struggling to get a look in. Well with the Green arrest likely to be dominating the headlines tonight that should be a minus point to Brown Central. But don’t underestimate them…
How will his statement go down with worried MPs? One of the “smart” elements of the Green arrest was the timing. It happened just as Parliament was going into a five day recess ahead of the Queen’s Speech and the start of the new parliamentary year. This meant that there was no immediate platform for the issue of the police search of Green’s Commons’ office to be raised in the chamber. That all changes today and the Tories and the…
Cantor Spreadfair RIP Today has been a sad day for political gamblers who have used the Spreadfair spread-betting exchange. In common with some other gambling services from the group this was closed down yesterday and special arrangements are being to deal with the transition. It seem that there’s no worry about getting any money deposited with them back. The firm’s email says “Any funds that you have on deposit with us remain totally secure and any funds not required to…
What about William Hill’s 6/4 price? I have just got a bet on with William Hill at 6/4 that Jacqui Smith will “will cease to be Home Secretary before the next General Election takes place”. The bookie only allowed me £80 although I wanted to put on £1000 – because these seem great odds. Even if Smith survives the current “Green-gate” affair Labour Home Secretaries have a record of not lasting very long and something else, surely, could come along…
This is a table adapted from UK Polling Report showing all the published ICM polls during 2008. Below is a table showing all the ComRes polls, excluding last night’s sensational CON 37%: LAB 36%: LD 17%. We also had in the Observer in the Observer on Sunday the poll from Ipsos-MORI. I’ve not featured its 2008 table because it has gone through a big methodological change. My main observation from the two tables is that ICM is the more stable…