When can you make valid historical poll comparisons? Almost everyday, it seems, someone on a thread or a journalist will seek to make polling comparisons with the 1990s and each time it happens myself and others will try to explain which this is not as easy as it appears. For there has been such a revolution in the UK polling industry since the aftermath of the 1992 general election that you have to be very careful when you point to…
Is this why the LD priority should be attacking Brown? Well done to the Sunday Times for making the detail from today’s YouGov poll available immediately. I wish all newspapers would do the same instead of us, in most cases, having to wait two or three days. You can download the spreadsheet from the link here. In view of the discussion on Lib Dem strategy I’ve clipped the above numbers showing the party splits on the Cameron and Brown approval…
News of the World Or is this now a lose-lose situation for the PM? Writing in the News of the World, former Archbishop of Canterbury George Carey has called for Brown to say “sorry” – is there now going to become a growing clamour for the Prime Minister to say the s-word? He says: “…it would be a refreshing, and much overdue, acknowledgement of some responsibility for the state we are in…” and points to the example of Obama as…
Updated CON 41(nc) LAB 31(nc) LD 17(+2) Is this too close to hung parliament territory? The March YouGov poll for the Sunday Times is now out and the numbers might cause a touch of concern in Team Cameron and offer a little bit of hope at Brown Central. For taking these numbers and assuming a uniform national swing and we are not far from the outcome being a hung parliament. But I must totally disagree with this statement in the…
Will the media even contemplate a success? Reading through the coverage a couple of weeks ago, and there was still some talk that a successful G20 summit in London – with President Obama appearing next to the Prime Minister on our shores – might provide the filip necessary for Labour to contemplate a Summer 2009 election. That seems a remote, if not faintly absurd, notion now. The Prime Minister’s Official Spokesman lashed out at the lobby for setting unrealistic expectations…
Guardian.co.uk Or could it be seen as a bit contrived? In his first speech since returning to work after the death of of son, Ivan, David Cameron will say “sorry” for his party’s failure to “to warn about the rising levels of corporate debt, banking debt and borrowing from abroad”. The real problem for the Tories here is that they aren’t in power and Cameron’s move could be dismissed as a bit contrived. After all none of the policy decisions…
Is there still the potential to demonise the Tories? This was Labour’s final election broadcast of the 2005 campaign – which was very similar to the closing messages in 2001 and 1997. Almost everything was based on the threat of what would happen if the Tories managed to win. Each of Labour three general election victories have been based on very astute negative campaigning and whatever your allegiance you have to concede that it proved it to be highly effective,…
Mail Online What are the trends in the key marginals? One of the key elements that “did” for the Major government in the post 1992 period was the collapse in house prices and the whole spectre of negative equity. For the value of someone property is one of the key determinants in how well or badly they view their personal economic futures. These things can have a lasting impression. Even in the 2005 general election campaign Labour was able to…