Click here to watch Why’s the LD schools spokesman getting it so wrong? You’ll have to indulge me if you think I’ve banged on about this too much – but I have a real “bee in my bonnet” about the phoney invalid polling comparisons that journos, pundits and politicians are rushing to make when they compare the polling position at the moment with what went on in 1996/97. And the person who has got under my skin this afternoon is…
What’s the collective view of PB? Please “vote” in each section and submit separately. This will close at 1800 GMT tomorrow (Thursday). Although, of course, this a voodoo poll these can be quite fun and should provide an indication of what the PB community, at least, thinks is going to happen. Who’ll still be there as party leaders on election day? Cameron:Brown:Clegg Cameron:Brown Cameron:Clegg Brown:Clegg Only Cameron Only Brown Only Clegg None of them What do you think the…
CON 42(nc) LAB 30(nc) LD 20(+2) Will this ease the Tory jitters? After a couple of quite disappointing polls for the Tories there’s the monthly Guardian survey by ICM and the only change is a two point jump in the Lib Dem share. This latest survey means that every single poll during 2009 has had the Tories in 40s and the fact that ICM, regarded by many in the Labour party as the “gold standard”, is not showing any movement…
Ipsos-MORI Is it because Cameron has been out of the news? When the MORI poll came out this morning my initial reaction was that what had driven the decline in the Tory share and increase in the Labour one was a big increase in the number of the latter’s supporters saying they were “100% certain to vote”. We have now just got the detailed data and I was wrong. The level of overall Tory support in the poll was not…
CONSERVATIVES 42% (-6) LABOUR 32% (+4) LIB DEMS 14% (-3) How close are we to a hung parliament? After the YouGov poll at the weekend reported a Conservative lead of just ten points the Ipsos-MORI Political Monitor for March, just out, has numbers in almost exactly the same region. This comes after a period when the spotlight has been off the Tory leader, David Cameron, following his bereavement leave. It should be said that MORI only include in their headline…
Mail Online Or will it just keep the story going? The Brown apology story moves on a step this morning with comments by the PM in a Guardian interview in which he admits that that he could have taken tougher action to curb the financial markets during he period as Chancellor. I think the Mail story above has got the sense right – yes there are words of apology there but it’s arguable whether he’s gone far enough. Whatever it’s…
Betting odds link David Herdson’s slant on the Tory leadership (This is a comment that David posted a few days ago which I thought was worthy of greater prominence – MS) The next Tory leader is one market I wouldn’t be going near at the moment. For one thing, Tory leaders are rarely the obvious candidates. For another, goodness knows when the next election will be. If Cameron loses the next general election, he may stand down straight away in…
ICM Is the idea that “governments always recover” a myth? We are hearing it all the time at the moment from journalists, politicos and pundits who should at least have the basic ability to check some simple facts before publishing wild statements – the idea that governments “always” recover in the polls as we get close to the general election. One of the problems, as discussed on the previous thread, is that many recall the unreformed polls of the 1990s…