..and the spread markets remain unmoved

..and the spread markets remain unmoved

The Money still suggests a CON majority of 56 seats There have been periods when we’ve covered the latest commons seats spread prices on a daily basis as market sentiment has moved between the main parties. Since late January, however, things have remained almost static with hardly any movement at all. The above are the prices from SportingIndex and suggest a mid-point for the Tories of 353 seats. That’s 28 more than the 325 required for an overall majority –…

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Was Cameron right to go on the expenses issue?

Was Cameron right to go on the expenses issue?

Is this the one that is resonating? On the day of protests all over London and the G20 leaders gathering for the big meeting tomorrow it was interesting that Cameron should have used his first line of attack at PMQs to focus on MPs expenses. This is especially the case now that now it’s becoming something of rarity to see Mr. Brown actually being there on a Wednesday – he’s usually got something much more important to do. I’ve been…

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How many of “Labour’s Class of ’97” will survive?

How many of “Labour’s Class of ’97” will survive?

Will they never know what it’s like to be the opposition? Unless there’s a dramatic change in the fortunes of the main parties in the next twelve months it’s likely that the number of seats changing hands could be approaching, or may even be higher, than that which we saw in Tony Blair’s landslide in 1997. Then John Major’s Conservatives had a net loss of 171 seats with Labour seeing a net increase of 147 and the Lib Dems 26….

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Could the G20 protests be the main story?

Could the G20 protests be the main story?

Will the police measures distract attention from the meeting itself With world leaders arriving in London for Thursday’s G20 meeting in the capital a big police operation is going on to ensure that the gathering itself can take place in relative peace and safety. Given the bomb attacks in London in July 2005 when the G8 meeting was taking place in Gleneagles there’s obviously a worry about police over-stretch. Meanwhile the person ostensibly in charge of all of this, Jacqui…

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Is being an MP really on par with a GP or a school head?

Is being an MP really on par with a GP or a school head?

What do MPs do to justify all their cash? This morning Ermintrude made a point that is worth its own thread – what is it that MPs do to justify all the cash that they get. Expressing the hope that a realistic appraisal of an MPs role should come out of this mess he wrote: “What bugs me is the frequent suggestion that their jobs are equivalent to other professional like headteachers or GPs. They’re not.” This reminds me of…

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Will Gord regret not sacking Jacqui?

Will Gord regret not sacking Jacqui?

Has he become distracted by the G20 meeting? Well here we are – another day of appalling front pages for MPs in the tabloid press as the Jacqui Smith porn issue rumbles on and outline details of expenses for every single MPs are published. What then will be the overall impact on the outcome of the general election? Will it all be forgotten about in a few days or is this another boost for the opposition – particularly the Tories?…

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ComRes has Labour back in the 20s

ComRes has Labour back in the 20s

CON 40(-1) LD 18(+1) LAB 28(-2) But could there be no votes for Labour in the G20 meeting? What should be the final poll for March, ComRes for the Indy, is now out and shows a small increase in the Tory lead – although the shares of both the main parties slipped on the last polls from the pollster a week and a half ago. The notable feature is the high figure for “others” 14% which shows the Greens and…

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PB Poll: Is Jacqui Smith going to survive?

PB Poll: Is Jacqui Smith going to survive?

Will Jacqui Smith still be Home Secretary on General Election day? YES she will NO she won’t    Ladbrokes has Jacqui at evens on being still in the job at the end of the year. James Purnell is the 8/1 second favourite. William Hill Politics make it 4/6 that she’ll be out by the end of the year. I got 6/4 on Smith not making it to the general election last November and I’ve got £10 on at 100/1 that…

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