YouGov EU poll: It’s a three-way tie for second place

YouGov EU poll: It’s a three-way tie for second place

Should you take the 6/4 that the LDs will beat Labour? As I suggested in the previous thread there was some uncertainty about the Sun’s YouGov figures for the EU elections because of different numbers in the article and in the chart. I’ve now got clarification from the firm’s Peter Kelner who writes: “The Sun graphic shows all naming a party; the text shows “certain to votes”. (Lib dems are also on 19% – so three-way tie for 2nd place!)”….

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Could Labour be heading for 3rd place in the Euros?

Could Labour be heading for 3rd place in the Euros?

The Sun Is it time to re-think June 4th betting? After arguing yesterday that UKIP that UKIP were unlikely to perform as well on June 4th as they did in 2004 I’m afraid I’m going to have to eat my words. For while we were all putting the focus on YouGov’s 22% share for Labour in a general election we over-looked the figures from an EU election voting intention question as well. There is a discrepancy between the body copy…

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Could this YouGov poll be the trigger for change?

Could this YouGov poll be the trigger for change?

The Sun CON 41(-2) LAB 22(-5) LD 19 (+1) YouGov: Labour drop to record low A sensational new poll for the Sun tomorrow shows very starkly the damage that is being done to Labour by the latest crisis – MPs expenses. Coming on top of everything we’ve seen in the past five weeks the question has to posed as to how long Gordon can stay at the top. Will numbers like this, if repeated in other polls over the weekend,…

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It’s the Thursday night PB sleaze thread

It’s the Thursday night PB sleaze thread

Telegraph online The Telegraph exposes go into a second week This is all getting into a regular routine. First we get the teaser, then the big story to be followed a little later on by other MPs who are in the same broad category. So what do we know about tonight? This is from the paper:- “The latest disclosures from the Telegraph on MPs’ expenses show questionable claims submitted by a minister working in one of the highest offices of…

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How good is the LAB>UKIP bet?

How good is the LAB>UKIP bet?

Should you be spending big in the William Hill market? For political gamblers there’s nothing like an election in three weeks time to get the juices running for so often the outcomes that we spend hours talking about and debating are such a long way ahead. Not so the June 4th elections. And the big bookies are getting geared up. William Hill got a lot of punters very excited with their LAB>UKIP market which opened with 7/4 being offered on…

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Does the party response matter more than the abuse?

Does the party response matter more than the abuse?

SkyNews Could the fast Tory action put more pressure on Brown? The expenses saga has taken a new turn with a leading Cameron aide being forced to resign – not as a result of stories in the press but because of the party’s new procedures for looking at what is going on. It strikes me that this element is critically important as all the parties try to get ahead of the game and ensure that they come out of this…

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Can standard voting intention responses mislead?

Can standard voting intention responses mislead?

PoliticsHome Sept 08 Look at what happens when a more refined approach is used Away from expenses and sleaze for a moment let’s look at a polling issue that’s been churning over in my head. It is possible that pollsters might be being mis-led when they ask standard voting intention questions? We know the sort of thing – “If there was a general election tomorrow which party would you vote for – the Conservative, Labour, the Liberal Democrats or some…

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Is this the most serious so far?

Is this the most serious so far?

Telegraph Is the paper saving the most dramatic to the last? In what could be the expenses abuse with the most serious consequences former minster, Elliot Morley, continued claiming for the mortgage interest on his constituency home for more than 18 months after the loan had been repaid according to tonight’s revelations in the paper. It says that lawyers are saying that the claims could constitute a criminal offence. This could potentially lead to a possible by election. At the…

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