Could this YouGov poll be the trigger for change?

Could this YouGov poll be the trigger for change?

The Sun
CON 41(-2) LAB 22(-5) LD 19 (+1)

YouGov: Labour drop to record low

A sensational new poll for the Sun tomorrow shows very starkly the damage that is being done to Labour by the latest crisis – MPs expenses. Coming on top of everything we’ve seen in the past five weeks the question has to posed as to how long Gordon can stay at the top.

Will numbers like this, if repeated in other polls over the weekend, cause party bosses to conclude that the only way forward is with a new leader?

The changes in the shares above are with the last YouGov poll which was in the Sunday Times at the weekend.

We have simply not been in this territory before. The Labour share of 22% hits new lows.

The poll shows an 18% share for others which is an extremely high number and something that has happened before in surveys taken around the time of previous EU elections. It was very marked in 1989, 1994, 1999 and 2004. Things have always gone to settle down in a few months and we just have to regard this as being an abnormal polling period.

The numbers also come from the pollster that has the reputation of magnifying trends. In September 2007 it was YouGov which had the biggest Labour leads and in May 2008 the firm reported on a new low in the immediate aftermath of the May local and London elections.

But that should not take away too much from the terrible Labour share which could have a major political impact.

Mike Smithson

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