Is this the nearest thing to a certainty that you’ll get? In political betting I am always wary of the term certainty but sometimes an opportunity arises when I’m convinced that what I’m betting on will come about. The last time I had this feeling was nearly a year ago when Ladbrokes had a market up on whether Labour would lose its deposit in the Henley by election. To me it seemed a certainty that Labour would get less than…
What would the great spinner have done about Johnson? This thread has been “prepared earlier” because I’m off to Wembley for the Championship play-off final between my team, Burnley, and Sheffield United. This’ll be the third time that the “Clarets” have played at Wembley since 1962 and I will have been there on every occasion. Burnley’s most well-know supporter is, of course, Alistair Campbell and I’m sure he’ll be amongst the crowds this afternoon as will the town’s MP, the…
Telegraph Will this re-ignite the anger? After a period when the Telegraph’s daily revelations about MPs expenses were starting to get a bit routine the paper has turned once again to the detailed affairs of the cabinet – folk you would think would have the political skills to know better. Thus the main lead in the Telegraph this morning looks as though it could have real damage on ministers beyond the standard outrage of what they and other MPs have…
What do we think of this attempt to gauge public opinion? This weekend, the penultimate before the June 4th Euro elections, I am please to announce the launch of PB Polling Dunce award which has been specially designed by Marf. The objective, I hope, is self-explanatory. And our first nominee is the Sunday Express for its piece below on Westminster constituency surveys which were carried out in Salford, Worcester and Basildon and according to the paper the results were very…
Will the election for Speaker prevent a Leadership contest? Michael Martin. Remember him? He used to be Speaker of the House of Commons until he resigned last week. Except of course he didn’t: he’s still there, forgotten but not gone. All he announced was that he would be resigning on June 21. There are some perfectly good reasons for having a delay of four weeks. For one thing, it allows members the opportunity to discuss potential candidates and to give…
Has Ben Tallis made a huge mistake? The above video I found courtesy of a friend who directed me to http://www.stopnickgriffin.org – it’s message is clear: Vote Green as the best chance to stop Nick Griffin from being elected. Clearly, this was a compelling argument for at least one person, as Ben Tallis (top of the list for Libertas in the North West) has announced that he is endorsing the Green Party in his region. I think this argument is…
Will ExpensesGate harden growing Euroscepticism? With the exception of the Guardian’s new ICM poll yesterday, the general trend of the last three weeks has been a fall in major party support, with UKIP being the principle (measurable) beneficiaries. Before the Telegraph began its campaign, I was of the (mainstream) opinion that UKIP would struggle to match their 2004 result, and that the behaviour of some of their members with regards to the ‘EU Gravy Train’ they purported to dispise would…
CON 30 (+4) LAB 24(+1) LD 18 (+3) UKIP 10(-6) GRN 9(3) SNP/PC 4(+2) BNP 1(-4) OTH 3(-3) Could turnout distort the pollsters’ projections? There’s a new Guardian ICM poll on the June 4th Euro elections out this afternoon which suggests that in spite of everything the main parities are all set for an increase of ten points between them compared with what happened in the last elections five years ago. This goes very much against other EU election polling…