Is voter certainty UKIP’s secret weapon?

Is voter certainty UKIP’s secret weapon?

What chances of Farage’s party over-hauling Labour? There’s a buzz around the UKIP campaign HQ at the moment following a private ComRes poll which seems to suggest that they could do very well – perhaps, even, over-taking Labour for second place. I haven’t seen any figures but my understanding is that amongst those who are certain or near-certain to vote then UKIP’s share was in the 18 – 19% region. This was still some way behind the Labour share but…

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Could we be witnessing Gord’s final 12 days as PM?

Could we be witnessing Gord’s final 12 days as PM?

Will cabinet members heed the Times and depose Brown? There’s a remarkable main leader in the Times this morning the likes of which I cannot recall ever seeing before. For the paper is calling on cabinet ministers, in the wake of next Thursday’s expected mauling in the Euro and local elections, to rise up and get rid of the man who became their leader less than two years ago. The Times declares: “..The vital choice lies with his Cabinet colleagues….

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Tony McNulty: My 500 pound troughers” betting haul

Tony McNulty: My 500 pound troughers” betting haul

Did you get the 5/1 that he’d have to pay some back? On March 28th I suggested here that you should take the 5/1 bet then being offered by William Hill that one of the first round troughers, minister Tony McNulty would “pay back any of his housing expenses”. I got £100 on so I’m looking forward to £500 in winnings and, of course, my stake back. It’s seems a very long time ago but just eight weeks ago McNulty…

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And now by popular demand – the return of Marf

And now by popular demand – the return of Marf

Welcome back from your break Our cartoon, the first for a while, is by Marf who is just getting back to work following a break. It’s great to see your drawing on the site again and we’ve missed your often biting satire – particularly during the first stages the MPs expenses disclosures. I like today’s because it sort of puts the whole thing into perspective. It’s North Korea that we should be worrying about More of Marf’s work can be…

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Two more June 4th predictions

Two more June 4th predictions

What vote share will UKIP get in the Euro election on June 4th? 0 – 8% 9 – 10% 11 – 12% 13 – 14% 15 – 16% 17 – 18% 19 – 20% 21 – 100%    What vote share will the BNP get in the Euro election on June 4th? 0 – 3% 4 – 5% 6 – 7% 8 – 9% 10 – 11% 12 – 13% 14 – 16% 17 – 100%   

Could this give Saffron Waldon to the Lib Dems?

Could this give Saffron Waldon to the Lib Dems?

Telegraph Is Heffer too right wing to become the “White suit” candidate? If I was the Lib Dem PPC in the Essex seat of Saffron Walden I’d be getting very excited this morning following the announcement by controversial Telegraph columnist, Simon Heffer, that he plans to stand against the sitting MP, deputy speaker, and MP allowance claimer, Sir Alan Haselhurst. Just look at the numbers. The notional 2005 result in the seat was: CON: 25593 (50.5%) LD: 14715 (29%) LAB:…

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Will Labour lose all of these a week on Thursday?

Will Labour lose all of these a week on Thursday?

Am I going to win my William Hill bet? Nearly a month ago William Hill put up a market for a short while on the June 4th country councils elections that in several places are happening at the same time as the Euro elections. The bet was simple: 2/1 that Labour would lose control of all of its remaining county – the four featured above. So it’s been very interesting following the canvassing reports of Nick Palmer – MP for…

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Two June 4th prediction surveys

Two June 4th prediction surveys

What will Labour’s GB vote share be in the June 4th Euro Election 0 – 16% 17 – 18% 19 – 20% 21 – 22% 23 – 24% 25 – 26% 27 – 100%    The second poll has now been fixed What will be the turnout across the UK in the June 4th Euro election? 0 – 20% 21 – 25% 26 – 28% 29 – 31% 32 – 35% 36 – 38% 39 – 100%