Am I going to win my William Hill bet?
Nearly a month ago William Hill put up a market for a short while on the June 4th country councils elections that in several places are happening at the same time as the Euro elections.
The bet was simple: 2/1 that Labour would lose control of all of its remaining county – the four featured above.
So it’s been very interesting following the canvassing reports of Nick Palmer – MP for Broxtowe in Nottinghamshire which is one of the four remaining Labour-controlled bodies.
Nick’s report tongiht was quite interesting and he talked about “…a marked shift from â€œformer Labour, now doubtfulâ€ back to Labour. What seemed to be driving it was not that they were warming to us but seeing more Tory activity both nationally and locally – people were seeing it less as a referendum on Labour and more as a choice between us and the Tories, pushing them back to their usual preference. One swallow doesnâ€™t make a summer, but â€™twas good.”
Of course there is always a difference between what those marked as Labour loyalists will tell canvassers, particularly if one is the local MP, and what might happen on the day.
My view was based on the simple fact that when these seats were last fought the election was held on General Election day 2005. The turnout was of general election proportions. That’s not going to happen next week and Labour’s problem is always that it finds it difficult getting its vote out when the government of the country is not at stake.
We’ll know on June 5th.
I think I’m going to win my bet.