CON 40 (+3) LAB 24(+2) LD 18 (-1) Half those polled say Brown is “damaging Britain” In its first full Westminster voting intention survey since the Euro elections the Sunday Times YouGov poll shows that the other parties are continuing to figure highly getting `18% of the choices of those in the sample. YouGov show that both the Tories and Labour are seeing increases in their vote shares – though Brown’s party is still in the low 20s. UKIP is…
It’s getting beyond the time when we normally gets news of any polls for the Sunday papers. I was expecting at least an ICM if only because JohnLoony, for the first time in his life, was interviewed by the firm earlier in the week. It might still come. The last ICM Westminster poll had Labour in third place behind the Lib Dems. Will that still be the situation whenever a poll comes out from the firm? My guess is probably…
What does Downing Street want from the election? In many ways the arch-Thatcherite turn progressive, John Bercow, seems the ideal candidate to replace Michael Martin. He’s bright, a good communicator and a record of not being beholden to any faction. If he gets elected a week on Monday you could see him operating in a totally independent manner that might just make life harder for Number 10. And it is this that makes me think that the chances of him…
Are they reflecting a separate media contest? The election of a new Speaker of the House of Commons will take place on Monday June 22nd, with the Father of the House presiding from the Chair. Under the revised Standing Order number 1(b), the winner will be selected through several rounds of secret ballot preferential voting. The change in system obviously has a huge impact on the eventual victor, but it is only one of a number of significant changes since…
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Will we see a repeat of 2004-2005? The detailed data from today’s Populus poll shows UKIP on a 7% share for the next general election and that the party is taking almost one on ten of those interviewed who voted Tory in 2005. This is a serious erosion of Tory support and could, if sustained, have a serious impact on Cameron’s dream of becoming Prime Minister of a majority government after the election. But will the UKIP surge continue to…
Populus CON 36 (-5) LAB 24(+3) LD 19 (+4) Blow for Cameron in new Populus poll The latest Populus poll in the Times looks like a serious blow for the Tories following nine terrible days for Labour. The voting intention figures above are bad enough but one of the other findings could be very worrying. As the paper puts it “..faced by a straight choice, 44 per cent would still prefer a Labour government and 42 per cent a Conservative…
Are there lessons you’ve learned for the future? Throughout Monday night, when the Euro results were coming in, the number that meant most to my betting positions was the turnout percentage. My initial call to take the Hills’ 5/1 that it would be below 30% had been ditched once I’d seen the postal voting numbers. My next bet up was 11/4 for the 30 – 34.99% range and a four figure sum was at stake as the numbers came in…