Tories back in the 40s with YouGov

Tories back in the 40s with YouGov

CON 40 (+3) LAB 24(+2) LD 18 (-1)

Half those polled say Brown is “damaging Britain”

In its first full Westminster voting intention survey since the Euro elections the Sunday Times YouGov poll shows that the other parties are continuing to figure highly getting `18% of the choices of those in the sample.

YouGov show that both the Tories and Labour are seeing increases in their vote shares – though Brown’s party is still in the low 20s. UKIP is still polling well – with 8% giving it their Westminster vote while the Greens are on 4% with the BNP on 3%.

If this follows a similar pattern to 2004/2005 then the “others” segment will shrink considerably when it comes to the general election. First past the post makes it difficult for any of them to win seats and the battle will be portrayed as being between the big parties.

An interesting issue will be how much of the BNP segment will go back to Labour – probably not as much as returning UKIPers to the Tories.

The main numbers will come as something of a relief in Tory HQ after a Populus poll taken in the immediate aftermath of the Euro results and Labour’s focus on Brown had a much narrower margin.

The part of the YouGov poll that is highlighted by the paper is that half those who took part think Brown’s survival as PM is harming Britain. To the statement “Gordon Brown’s continued presence as prime minister is damaging the country”, had 51% agreeing against 27% who disagree.

I’m always very sceptical of polling questions like this because they can appear to be leading.

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