June elections betting post mortem

June elections betting post mortem


Are there lessons you’ve learned for the future?

Throughout Monday night, when the Euro results were coming in, the number that meant most to my betting positions was the turnout percentage. My initial call to take the Hills’ 5/1 that it would be below 30% had been ditched once I’d seen the postal voting numbers.

My next bet up was 11/4 for the 30 – 34.99% range and a four figure sum was at stake as the numbers came in from the different regions. And oh how close it got eventually finishing up at about 34.5% – low enough to trigger payments from William Hill.

At least that market, coupled with Ladbrokes turnout bets ended up in the black.

Where I went seriously wrong was on the UKIP-LAB seat superiority market. I thought I was sitting pretty with 6/5 Labour bets and 11/4 on UKIP without taking out enough insurance on the tie – which is how it finished up. That was a lot of money down the drain.

This was more than balanced by the 2/1 that Labour would lose all its county councils and the evens bets on the overall Labour share being lower than 20%.

I also lost a bit when Alan Johnson became home secretary – I had bets on both Balls and Shaun Woodward. My bets on Darling being moved during 2009 and Ed Balls being next chancellor still stand.

How was it for you?

Mike Smithson

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