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Has Cameron gambled on the expenses issue going away? Yesterday’s news that George Osborne is to be investigated over his expense claims puts the issue back into the news. I suspect that in the public’s mind it never really went away. Largely ignored last week, in the news maelstrom surrounding Michael Jackson’s death, was an announcement that the Conservative Scrutiny Panel had finished its work. Reportedly no MPs were to be disciplined, and it looks like no Shadow Cabinet Ministers…

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Will voters simply choose the nice guys? In the last fortnight, there have been a number of occasions when David Cameron has attacked Gordon Brown’s honesty – over debt levels, claims about capital spending, and over growth targets. The language used has been a little more stark than the usual false pleasantries cast across the Dispatch Boxes, and it has been chased up by some corners of the Fourth and Fifth Estates respectively. I can understand the thinking – if…

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Could Swine Flu prove the joker in the pack? Looking at the Politics Home news charts, which measures the column inches of each major story, the largest rises are the news that Shadow Chancellor George Osborne is to be investigated over his expenses, and that Health Secretary Andy Burnham has warned the Commons that Britain could see 100,000 cases of Swine Flu per day by August. Like BSE and Foot’n’Mouth in years past, nothing dominates news coverage like a domestic…

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Will this focus attention on the issue of ‘privatisation’? Two big news stories in the last day or so – the postponement of the partial sale of Royal Mail (Lord Mandelson cited current economic circumstances, and potential buyers being unable to offer deals that were value for money), and the temporary nationalisation of the East Coast Line rail franchise by Lord Adonis. The Royal Mail part-privatisation delay will mollify union opposition (who are, let us not forget, Alan Johnson’s base…

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Will it be another knife-wielding Chancellor? I tend to make a point of looking to the First Post for particularly juicy scoops, and yet again they have delivered. Their article from ‘the Mole’ yesterday indicates that the growing feud at the top of Government is between Chancellor Alistair Darling and First Secretary of State Lord Mandelson. Mandelson had trampled on Treasury toes by announcing that the Comprehensive Spending Review would be delayed until after the next election – the Treasury…

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Are electorates follically prejudiced? There are all sorts of patterns that exist in politics. Some are entirely coincidental, such as every US president elected in a year ending in zero dying in office from 1840 to 1960 (and Reagan – elected in 1980 – was shot but survived); others have a relatively clear mathematical and logical link, such as the relationship between the vote share of a party and the seats it’s likely to win. Then there are others that…

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What line might Cameron take today? It could be a tricky PMQs today for Gordon Brown – I’d expect him to take heavy fire over the refusal to completely scrap the ID cards programme, and wouldn’t be surprised if Ed Ball’s recent spat with Fraser Nelson of the Spectator didn’t earn a mention (here is the story, see also a definition of the Streisand Effect). After Greg Hands MP complained that the PM and Schools Secretary not only failed to…

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Does this suggest Johnson is still angling for the top job? There is still a large school of thought that thinks Brown will be allowed to step aside with dignity before the next election, and that such a promise was given to stop him being ousted in an ugly coup a month ago. Alan Johnson, who reputedly had a leadership campaign ready to launch, was suddenly promoted to Home Secretary, and the general feeling of those who doubt Brown will…

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