What’s behind the gender voting changes? The above chart was prepared by Ben Page, CEO of Ipsos-MORI, and shows the changes on the 2005 general elections broken down by social class and gender. Ben has aggregated all the MORI polling data for the first nine months of 2009 and compares it with what happened at the general election in May 2005. The overall increase in the Tory share is 8 points but notice the big difference between men an women….
Sunday Express The Brown “days as PM” index moves back ten days With Gordon Brown having survived Labour’s June election disasters, Norwich North and the conference season the level of activity on the “when will he go” markets has been relatively light. The view was growing that he would lead Labour into the battle against Cameron’s conservatives. That’s changed in the past 24 hours following the Number 10 statement about his eye problems. Could this, after all, be the pretext…
CON 45 (+5) LAB 26 (nc) LD 18 (-5) At last a survey where certainty to vote is key! We have been so overwhelmed by YouGov and YouGov-related surveys (PoliticHome and BPIX) that it comes as something of as relief to get some numbers from one of the leading phone pollsters with a track record going back decades. A key element with ICM is weighting by certainty to vote – something which YouGov doesn’t do and which I believe is…
Is he right about the SNP’s chances? Last night I had a slot on the George Galloway show on TalkSport and we had a good conversation about the current political betting markets. We got on to next month’s Glasgow NE by election when he surprised me by tipping the SNP. Galloway is from Glasgow and was a Labour MP for one of its seats. He must know the workings of the city’s Labour machine inside out so I take his…
How do these numbers fit with your article Professor? My apologies for returning to this subject but I feel I ought to raise yet again the issue of Blair’s 1996/97 polls ratings which are referred to in a commentary on the Mail BPIX poll by Anthony King, professor of government at Essex University. writes:- “…However, the findings still indicate that the road ahead for the Tories may be rocky. Not only is the Conservatives’ lead over Labour not nearly as…
Will they repeat their conference bounce come the election? Conference season 2009 is over and with YouGov having helpfully provided their tracker poll for Sky almost daily, now’s a good time to look back to see what lessons can be drawn for the coming months. The most obvious effect was that each of the parties gained a boost in their share during and immediately after their conference. That’s perhaps to be expected as each was able to control much of…
CON 42% (-2) LAB 28% (+1) LD 19%(+2) Is it back to where we were before the conferences? A new non-tracker full sample YouGov poll for the Sun is just out and the figure are shown with comparisons on the latest tracker poll where the most of the fieldwork took place last night. This is a standard 2.161 sample survey and has variations on the smaller poll that was completed a few hours earlier. I’m coming to the view that…
CON 44% (+4) LAB 27% (-4) LD 17%(-1) The tracker sees Labour’s deficit increase by 8 points Long-standing regulars will know that for years I’ve argued that that there is a close correlation between the amount of coverage that Cameron gets on TV and his party’s poll ratings. So after the “saturation-Cameron” coverage around his big speech ahead of the field-work for the latest YouGov tracker what happens? Of course. The Tories see their share moving to 44% all at…