Some polling data for top politics don Anthony King

Some polling data for top politics don Anthony King

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How do these numbers fit with your article Professor? My apologies for returning to this subject but I feel I ought to raise yet again the issue of Blair’s 1996/97 polls ratings which are referred to in a commentary on the Mail BPIX poll by Anthony King, professor of government at Essex University. writes:- “…However, the findings still indicate that the road ahead for the Tories may be rocky. Not only is the Conservatives’ lead over Labour not nearly as…

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Is now the time to back the Lib Dems?

Is now the time to back the Lib Dems?

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Will they repeat their conference bounce come the election? Conference season 2009 is over and with YouGov having helpfully provided their tracker poll for Sky almost daily, now’s a good time to look back to see what lessons can be drawn for the coming months. The most obvious effect was that each of the parties gained a boost in their share during and immediately after their conference. That’s perhaps to be expected as each was able to control much of…

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Non-tracker YouGov poll shows 14 point Tory lead

Non-tracker YouGov poll shows 14 point Tory lead

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CON 42% (-2) LAB 28% (+1) LD 19%(+2) Is it back to where we were before the conferences? A new non-tracker full sample YouGov poll for the Sun is just out and the figure are shown with comparisons on the latest tracker poll where the most of the fieldwork took place last night. This is a standard 2.161 sample survey and has variations on the smaller poll that was completed a few hours earlier. I’m coming to the view that…

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What does this say about the “Cameron on the telly” thesis?

What does this say about the “Cameron on the telly” thesis?

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CON 44% (+4) LAB 27% (-4) LD 17%(-1) The tracker sees Labour’s deficit increase by 8 points Long-standing regulars will know that for years I’ve argued that that there is a close correlation between the amount of coverage that Cameron gets on TV and his party’s poll ratings. So after the “saturation-Cameron” coverage around his big speech ahead of the field-work for the latest YouGov tracker what happens? Of course. The Tories see their share moving to 44% all at…

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The Osborne gamble: The first telephone poll

The Osborne gamble: The first telephone poll

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A mixed bag for George as we assess the reaction I don’t normally cover ComRes polls for the Daily Politics programme because there’s no voting intention question and the samples are not past voted weighted. I’m making an exception this afternoon because there’s been no polling data from anybody this week other than YouGov. Today’s survey found 43% of those questioned said they trusted the Conservatives most to ‘put in place the right conditions for a strong economic recovery’, compared…

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Is “fighting big government” going to resonate?

Is “fighting big government” going to resonate?

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Or has Cameron provided the ammunition for Labour? The critical element about party leaders’ big conference speeches ahead of general elections is that they define the big message that will be put to the voters and the core proposition on which they will be asking the public to vote for them. Several of the papers this morning pick out the Cameron approach to big government and the state as their view of the over-arching theme and, indeed, the way they…

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Is a Labour victory a near certainty?

Is a Labour victory a near certainty?

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Wikipedia Are there any chances of an upset? At last we have it – the date for the Glasgow NE by election to fill the vacancy created when former speaker, Michael Martin, stepped down as an MP in June. It’ll take place on November 12th which is just over a year after Labour’s stunning victory in Glenrothes when extraordinarily the total of votes cast for the party exceeded that at the general election. Clearly all the parties, particularly Labour, have…

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