Are MPs being treated badly? One of the best pieces this morning on the Legg report explosion is from the veteran Labour MP and former BBC current affairs presenter, Austin Mitchell in the Times. He writes:“….the sad fact is that we MPs have nothing and no one to defend us. There is no National Union of Parliamentarians and Related Creeps. I wish that some kamikaze litigant would apply for a judicial review of the review. That would hold everything up….
Will Brown’s ratings go up or down? The Irish bookmaker, PaddyPower is now offering a monthly market on which way Brown’s YouGov approvals ratings are going to move. This is based on the monthly Sunday Times YouGov survey, the next one of which should come this weekend. Previous results can be seen here and looking at what’s happened in the past four months I think that PaddyPower price of 5/4 on it being in the 20-30% range looks great value….
Are the big moves in target-rich regions? Whenever the full dataset from a new poll comes out there’s usually a discussion on the site of the regional breakdowns. The problem, of course, is that each sub-set is not subject to the overall weighting calculations and sample sizes are small. In the chart above we see something different – the aggregated MORI polling data for the first nine months of 2009 compared with what happened at the general election in May…
Legg rules that he doesn’t have to pay anything back? At the end of March several PBers, including me, risked their cash on the William Hill market that the former minister, Tony McNulty, would be forced to pay money back following reports that he’d claimed £60,000 of taxpayers’ money for the mortgage on a house he owns in his Harrow constituency where his parent live. As was reported this was close to his constituency office and just 11 miles from…
And is it made worse by the decision on Jacqui? Almost all the front pages this morning are devoted to the second eruption of the MPs expenses scandal and, in particular, the focus on Mr. Brown. We wait to see whether the further inquiries of Cameron will produce bad headlines for him but for the moment the fact that the PM is going to have to pay a slab of money back is not going to help his chances of…
CON 40 (-1) LAB 30 (+3) LD 18 (nc) What a difference from ICM This is quite a dramatic poll which is very unexpected simply because Populus operates in a very similar manner to ICM and indeed usually uses the firm for its field-work. So the variance from the ICM survey published only yesterday is quite remarkable, One thing I will be looking at when the data is published is the scale of the “spiral of silence adjustment” where Populus…
Fieldwork work starts later in the week I was asked on the previous thread about the time-table for PB’s exclusive new poll. Later this week fieldwork starts on the first of the monthly surveys that we’ll have here right upto the general election. There will be a formal announcement by the company involved, one of the biggest names in world polling, next Monday. The findings will then be published here on Tuesday or Wednesday. The detailed data will be made…
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