Do they give a fair sense of opinion? Regulars on PB will know that I generally detest the findings from non-voting intention questions in polls. So much is dependent on how the question are formulated and the order in which there are put. I am sure that we all recall from that wonderful “Yes Prime Minister” sequence when Sir Humphrey managed to devise two sets of questions on conscription which led to entirely different outcomes. So what are we to…
Are they on the money or not? This is the second part of the so-called “PB SUPER SIX PREDICTIONS – the general election seat bets from half a dozen of the leading political punters on the site. They are Peter the Punter, Richard Nabavi, Peter from Putney, StJohn, AntiFrank and ScottP who between have got bets on in nearly ninety separate constituencies. One of those on this evening’s list is Morley and Outwood – where I’ve punted quite heavily at…
Guardian What would be the impact of a defection? One of the early signs of what was to come from Brown Central was the ferocious campaign to undermine and eventually secure the sacking of Frank Field at the start of the Labour government. He had been brought in by Blair to “think the unthinkable” about welfare reform until the Brownies got there way. This is recounted at length in Tom Bower’s brilliant biography on Brown and the man who is…
Is this what ultimately will be the clincher? As we get closer to elections, it seems, there is one hardy topic that always emerges – that of the impact of negative campaigning and we saw in 1997, 2001 and 2005 how much of the Labour message was primarily about demonising the Tories. But what about negative voting? Do negative messages chime with what some of the electorate wants and what’s the impact? So does it matter in the current context…
Could this be the game-changer that Labour needs? The news that David Miliband has pulled himself out of the running for the EU High Representative post has added to the speculation that he might once again be considering a Labour leadership bid BEFORE the general election. What would be the impact of this? Is Labour’s unpopularity largely down to Brown and would the party led by Miliband stand a better chance in the election? Certainly there are many who think…
The “collective wisdom” view on key seat betting In table above we feature the first part of the predictions for key general election seats from a group of PB betting regulars who are modestly calling themselves “The PB Super Six”. Can I thank Peter the Punter and ScottP for pulling this together. The plan is to show all the seats where they have got bets on and the colour coding indicates where their money is going. This is part 1….
The Sun What does this say about Brown’s survival chances? The big overnight political betting story is the news that David Miliband won’t be going for the EU High Representative job – and all the speculation that this opens up not only about that appointment but the whole Labour leadership. Congratulations to Peter the Punter, Morus and others for picking up developments ahead of MSM and to Morus (Greg Callus), in particular, for his tip at 9.20pm on who might…
CON 39%(-1) LAB 29%(-1) LD 18%(nc) UKIP 4.3% (+2) BNP 2% (nc) GRN ???? SNP/PC ???? UKIP gets a two point boost Although the figures are different the trends in tonight Populus poll for the Times are broadly similar to that which we saw in the last poll – the Angus Reid one for PB. The Tories down a bit and there’s an increase in the overall share for others with UKIP moving up. The gap between the Tories and…