Could their rise be disguising the scale of the swing? The big trend from almost all the polls in recent weeks week has been the increase in the share for “others” – UKIP, the Greens, the BNP and SNP/PC in Scotland and Wales. In some surveys they are now more than double the 8.2% that they got between them at the 2005 general election A question for anybody wanting to bet on and/or predict the outcome is whether these historically…
This is the third and final part of the general election constituency bets by half a dozen regulars who call themselves, with appropriate modesty, The PB Super Six. Thanks to Peter the Punter and ScottP for getting this together. The one I like is Norwich South where the incumbent is Charles Clarke – the former home secretary and long-standing Gordon Brown critic. Look how we have four separate views of the outcome. This is the Norwich South 2005 notional result…
UKPollingReport Can you predicts its next set of numbers? I don’t think that there’s been a poll in recent times that has had such an impact on the media narrative that the November Political Monitor from Ipsos-MORI. Even though it’s now four days since it was published and nearly a week and a half since the fieldwork close the general election outcome that it suggested is still being mulled over by “serious” commentators. So what do you think the pollster…
House of Commons Research paper But how important was it going to be anyway The latest YouGov poll of Scottish opinion has added to the growing narrative about a hung parliament. For the shares it found north of the border had Labour back at 2005 general election levels suggesting that the party is not going to suffer the losses that many had been predicting. The shares from the survey were comparisons on the last Scottish YouGov poll – CON 18%(-2):…
Angus Reid Strategies My apologies for the delay in making the detailed available from last night Politicalbetting Angus Reid Strategies poll. As I explained I was keen to make the main figures available as soon as possible and the fieldwork had only ended a few hours earlier. One element that makes this poll different is the wording of the voting intention question – “If a General Election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you be most…
Never forget the “Golden Polling Rule? In the feeding frenzy that’s followed the Observer MORI poll we’ve seen so-called experts rushing in to pontificate because they thought they had a story. The election was not a foregone conclusion after all. But there’s an inconvenient truth that you hardly hear mentioned – what PB regulars will know as “The Golden Polling Rule”. This is that whenever polls have been tested against real election results it’s been the survey with Labour in…
Why polling is all about the trend The overnight survey from PB’s pollster, Angus Reid Strategies, is the third that we’ve had since the site’s arrangement with the Canadian online firm was launched in October – and the big message is that there’s been very little change. All three polls have had the three main parties and others moving in very narrow ranges all well within the margin of error. The Tories have been at 40, 38 and now 39;…
CON 39%(38) LAB 22%(25 24) LD 21%(20) OTHERS 18% (18) Labour only one point ahead of the Lib Dems There’s a new Angus Reid Strategies poll exclusively for PB and it shows a very different picture from the Ipsos-MORI survey that was published in the Observer yesterday. The fieldwork for this 2,000 sample online poll started on Friday and only finished today. It had not been the plan to release it early but given all the attention there is being…