What does YouGov Scotland say about a “hung parliament”?

What does YouGov Scotland say about a “hung parliament”?

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House of Commons Research paper But how important was it going to be anyway The latest YouGov poll of Scottish opinion has added to the growing narrative about a hung parliament. For the shares it found north of the border had Labour back at 2005 general election levels suggesting that the party is not going to suffer the losses that many had been predicting. The shares from the survey were comparisons on the last Scottish YouGov poll – CON 18%(-2):…

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Now the detail from last night’s PB poll

Now the detail from last night’s PB poll

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Angus Reid Strategies My apologies for the delay in making the detailed available from last night Politicalbetting Angus Reid Strategies poll. As I explained I was keen to make the main figures available as soon as possible and the fieldwork had only ended a few hours earlier. One element that makes this poll different is the wording of the voting intention question – “If a General Election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you be most…

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An inconvenient truth for messrs Liddle and Macintyre

An inconvenient truth for messrs Liddle and Macintyre

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Never forget the “Golden Polling Rule? In the feeding frenzy that’s followed the Observer MORI poll we’ve seen so-called experts rushing in to pontificate because they thought they had a story. The election was not a foregone conclusion after all. But there’s an inconvenient truth that you hardly hear mentioned – what PB regulars will know as “The Golden Polling Rule”. This is that whenever polls have been tested against real election results it’s been the survey with Labour in…

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Is “no change” the message from Angus Reid?

Is “no change” the message from Angus Reid?

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Why polling is all about the trend The overnight survey from PB’s pollster, Angus Reid Strategies, is the third that we’ve had since the site’s arrangement with the Canadian online firm was launched in October – and the big message is that there’s been very little change. All three polls have had the three main parties and others moving in very narrow ranges all well within the margin of error. The Tories have been at 40, 38 and now 39;…

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PB Angus Reid poll has Labour down to 22pc

PB Angus Reid poll has Labour down to 22pc

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CON 39%(38) LAB 22%(25 24) LD 21%(20) OTHERS 18% (18) Labour only one point ahead of the Lib Dems There’s a new Angus Reid Strategies poll exclusively for PB and it shows a very different picture from the Ipsos-MORI survey that was published in the Observer yesterday. The fieldwork for this 2,000 sample online poll started on Friday and only finished today. It had not been the plan to release it early but given all the attention there is being…

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Is Alex right about the “system bias” towards Labour?

Is Alex right about the “system bias” towards Labour?

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Wikimedia Do the Tories really need a 10 point margin? A couple of weeks ago alex posted this on a thread during a discussion about the much talked about “bias to Labour” in the electoral system – something that has become more relevant with the hung parliament talk. He wrote:-“..the claims for “bias” are based on the theory..that the Conservatives need a 10% lead for an outright majority whereas Labour only need to be about level. Confusing cause and effect….

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Spread punters unimpressed by hung parliament talk

Spread punters unimpressed by hung parliament talk

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SportingIndex CON 352-357 LAB 208-213 LD 50-53 MORI moves the Labour spread by just one seat The immediate reaction of the spread betting firms to the sensational MORI poll suggesting a hung parliament was to suspend trading while they took stock of the situation. We’ll have to wait until later in the day for the latest extrabet spreads but SportingIndex did produce revised figures yesterday afternoon and put Labour up by just one seat. Before the poll came out Brown’s…

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Can Gord now kiss goodbye to a deal with Nick?

Can Gord now kiss goodbye to a deal with Nick?

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Click here to watch today’s interview So it’s the vote winners that matter – not the seat winners? For several years I have been posing the question of whether, in the event of a hung parliament, the Lib Dems would side with the party that won most seats or the party that won most votes – something that has again been brought into focus by the Ipsos-MORI poll. For the party of “fair votes” this was always going to present…

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