How can we explain both MORI and ICM? One thing you must not do, when you see a shock polling outcome such as the survey for by MORI for the Observer this morning, is immediately to conclude that it must be a rogue or an outlier. The fact is that we don’t know. You can only label a poll like that with the benefit of hindsight and it might be that when we see further surveys that the poll carried…
CON 37% (-6) LAB 31% (+5) LD 17% (-2) OTHERS 15% The delayed survey has the Tory lead down to just 6pts There are reports about that a poll due out tonight is “very good for Labour“. We haven’t seen any numbers yet and this post will be updated when we get some. Which pollster it is I don’t know but the November Ipsos-MORI poll is long overdue. The field-work began a week last Friday in the immediate aftermath of…
Is this the best value odds-on bet? Odds-on betting isn‘t always particularly attractive, especially when the bet lasts over several months. A lot can happen in the meantime to upset expectations, it ties up a lot in comparison to the anticipated return and even if it does come in, there’s no great sense of elation, as when picking a long-odds winner – and of course, nothing like the returns either. Even so, that’s not to say there isn’t any value…
Wikipedia Which 2005 “notional” result should we believe? After JackW’s earlier thread I thought I’d have a further look at Morley & Outwood – the seat with new boundaries that the Schools Secretary, the public-school educated Mr. Balls, will try to defend at the coming election. And to my surprise I came up with two rather different projections of what the 2005 election outcome would have been on the new boundaries. Anthony Wells UKPollingReport has this:- LAB 19956 (50.2%): CON:…
Jack W asks: Were you up for Portillo ? It was perhaps the most iconic moment of the 1997 general election as Michael Portillo was defeated at Enfield Southgate by the eyebrow raising fresh faced Stephen Twigg. It was also one of the Conservative defeats that locked in the Labour landslide. A defeat that was was well outside the expectations of both the BBC and ITN exit polls and early results swing of 8-10% Portillo fell off the scale at…
And is this a first for Mail and Guardian front pages? For political punters, surely, the saddest aspect of the selection of Baroness Ashton as the first EU High Commissioner is that PB’s Morus (AKA Greg Callus) who posted his exclusive tip here on November 9th, was unable to place a bet himself. He’s currently on a Fulbright scholarship at Columbia University in New York and there’s a very strict ban on US residents betting with foreign bookmakers So Greg…
Victory in the EU race for the pollster’s spouse New is just coming out of the names of the two people who will be proposed afor the EU’s top jobs. They are Belgian Prime Minister Herman Van Rompuy the presidency and Britain’s Baroness Ashton as the EU’s foreign policy chief. The latter was tipped here by PB’s Morus, Greg Callus, when she was still 50/1. Baroness Ashton was in the cabinet until last year when she was appointed to take…
“…..It’s as if he thinks that, if only he can make one more titanic effort, the scales will suddenly fall from the public’s eyes and the Tories will stand revealed as the wicked, malevolent force he thinks they are, and Brown will be bathed in virtuous sunlight as the country’s great protector. Brown is entitled to think this. But it’s a fantasy. Smart politics ought to have a bigger and more supple vision than that in times like these…”– Martin…