Massachusetts live thread
Will it be a Democrat disaster in the Bay State? UPDATE: Massachusetts called for Brown (GOP) Boston Globe town-by-town results Vote count from AP Politico RCP Live Blog CNN feed Double Carpet
So Big Ben strikes ten on May 6th
Will this mark the start of a change of government? The polls will close. Then all the TV and radio news channels will announce the first details of the exit poll that MORI have been carrying out throughout the day and which will have been processed and analysed by Professors Curice, Thrasher and Rallings. Over the next few hours results from about half the constituencies – the rest will be counted on the Friday. At what stage will the picture…
Introducing Morus’s (aka Greg Callus) General Election guide
Amazon.co.uk Widgets This is being launched in London tonight and is well worth the £10.68 that Amazon will charge you for the paper-back. The lead editor was Greg Callus, known to PBers as MORUS, and I wrote one of the chapters. The team have done a great job in producing something that will be looked at time and time again in the coming months. Well done Greg- you deserve to feel very proud. Mike Smithson
Are these now going to get really squeezed?
Do the latest polls show it’s the end of the “others”? The dominating feature of the polls since last June’s Euro elections was that “others” – mainly GRN/BNP/UKIP – looked set to take a significant shares. These three parties together with PC/SNP in Wales and Scotland secured about 8% of GB vote in 2005. In some polls in the past few months this has touched 18% and a big question has been whether the Tories or Labour are being hit…
What does this say about voter motivation?
PoliticsHome Is this the product of being in power for 13 years? I don’t quite know what to make of this poll from PoliticsHome – the politics website and quasi polling organisation that has yet to join the British Polling Council. Inevitably when you’ve been at the helm for a fairly long time then there will have been a whole lot of disappointments on the policy front. But I just wonder what these numbers say about the motivation of party…
Will they view things differently in the English Towns?
Amber Valley – 6.3% Barrow and Furness – 6.6% Basildon South & East Thurrock – 5.6% Batley and Spen – 6.7% Bedford – 4% Blackpool North and Cleveleys – 4.2% Bolton North East – 6% Bolton West – 5.9% Brigg and Goole – 3.9% Brighton Kemptown – 2.4% Brighton Pavilion – 6.6% Broxtowe – 2.2% Burton – 2.4% Bury North – 2.5% Calder Valley – 1.4% Carlisle – 6.7% Chatham and Aylesford – 4.1% Chester – 1.1% Cleethorpes – 3% Colne Valley – 1.3% Copeland – 6.6% Corby – 1.6% Crawley – 0.05% Derbyshire South – 2.7% Dewsbury – 4.4% Dorset South – 1.8% Dover –…
Could Labour be being understated in the polls?
Guardian Might the Labour bias corrections have gone too far? The Guardian’s polling expert, Julian Glover, raises an interesting question this morning – could all the measures that have been made in recent years to correct the systemic pro-Labour polling bias have gone too far? And if that’s the case then could this offer a glimmer of hope for Brown’s party as it sees the Tories staying in the 40s looking on course for victory? For unlike any previous election…
So what do the “PB 131” think about 2010?
Your predictions revealed Many thanks to everyone who took part in the PB 2010 Prediction Competition hosted by The Election Game, with a turnout 31% up on 2009. The full summary predictions and player-by-player detail are available here, but these are the headline numbers. UK General Election Con 348 Lab 215 LD 54 Con maj 46 Labour Leader at Xmas Ed Miliband 24% David Miliband 20% Harriet Harman 19% Alan Johnson 7% There are more potential Labour leadership candidates, plus…