Will they view things differently in the English Towns?

Will they view things differently in the English Towns?

Amber Valley – 6.3% Barrow and Furness – 6.6% Basildon South & East Thurrock – 5.6% Batley and Spen – 6.7% Bedford – 4% Blackpool North and Cleveleys – 4.2% Bolton North East – 6% Bolton West – 5.9% Brigg and Goole – 3.9% Brighton Kemptown – 2.4% Brighton Pavilion – 6.6% Broxtowe – 2.2% Burton – 2.4% Bury North – 2.5% Calder Valley – 1.4% Carlisle – 6.7% Chatham and Aylesford – 4.1% Chester – 1.1% Cleethorpes – 3% Colne Valley – 1.3% Copeland – 6.6% Corby – 1.6% Crawley – 0.05% Derbyshire South – 2.7% Dewsbury – 4.4% Dorset South – 1.8% Dover –…

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Could Labour be being understated in the polls?

Could Labour be being understated in the polls?

Guardian Might the Labour bias corrections have gone too far? The Guardian’s polling expert, Julian Glover, raises an interesting question this morning – could all the measures that have been made in recent years to correct the systemic pro-Labour polling bias have gone too far? And if that’s the case then could this offer a glimmer of hope for Brown’s party as it sees the Tories staying in the 40s looking on course for victory? For unlike any previous election…

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So what do the “PB 131” think about 2010?

So what do the “PB 131” think about 2010?

Your predictions revealed Many thanks to everyone who took part in the PB 2010 Prediction Competition hosted by The Election Game, with a turnout 31% up on 2009. The full summary predictions and player-by-player detail are available here, but these are the headline numbers. UK General Election Con 348 Lab 215 LD 54 Con maj 46 Labour Leader at Xmas Ed Miliband 24% David Miliband 20% Harriet Harman 19% Alan Johnson 7% There are more potential Labour leadership candidates, plus…

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Do these 1992 approval ratings hold the key?

Do these 1992 approval ratings hold the key?

Should we be waiting for the MORI January numbers? So in the past week we have had two telephone polls, Populus and ComRes, showing sharpish moves to the Tories while the two online polls have either reported no change (Angus Reid) or Labour moving up a notch and the Tories moving down (YouGov). Given that one, last night’s YouGov had the gap close to, as they say, “hung parliament territory” what is going on and could the election, after all,…

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Tories move up four in first ComRes poll of the year

Tories move up four in first ComRes poll of the year

UPDATED 2030 CON 42 % (38) LAB 29 % (29) LD 19 %(19) The first of tonight’s polls is good for the Tories? A new ComnRes poll for the Indy on Sunday is just out and will bring some cheer to Cameron Towers and might add to the gloom within Brown Central. There’s been a straight four point switch from “others” to the Tories with Labour and the Lib Dem remaining static. This is the second of two recent polls…

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How much will the debates help push turnout?

How much will the debates help push turnout?

Is it worth 3/1 that it’ll exceed 70%? PaddyPower have now joined Ladbrokes in opening up a turnout market. Both are making 65 – 69.9% the favourite though the Irish bookmaker is being more generous if you think it will top 70%. It has 3/1 against this option compared with the Ladbrokes 9/4. I’m quite taken with the notion that we’ll see a significant increase on the 60% of 2005. This coming election looks set to produce only the second…

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Could he be the Two Month PM?

Could he be the Two Month PM?

Might it be the shortest-lived ministry since Wellington? As one of pbc’s more regular posters has reminded us more than once, there doesn’t need to be much slippage in the Tory lead to turn the current projected overall majority into minority territory and while it remains odds-on with all bookies that the Conservatives will win outright, the best odds on No Overall Majority are just 11/4 with Ladbrokes. Let’s suppose for the moment that the Conservatives win the largest number of…

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MORI Poll: Teachers prefer Labour

MORI Poll: Teachers prefer Labour

But is the trend bad news for Brown’s party? In the coming month or so we are likely to see many more polls like this which seek to find out the political preferences of specific professional groups. This, from MORI, is based on a survey of 1,000 teachers in England and Wales with the fieldwork taking place over a five week period towards the end of last year. It’s hard to know what to make of it though it does…

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