What will the recession end do to the campaign? Unless everybody has got this wildly wrong official figures out this morning will show that Britain’s economy grew in the final quarter of 2009, thus marking the end of the recession that has been going on for eighteen months. It’s a massive day for Labour and its leader Mr. Brown who believe that this will underline their argument that their approach to dealing with the economic crisis has been right and…
CON 40 % (40) LAB 29 % (30) LD 21 %(18) And Clegg’s Lib Dems go up 3 to 21 The Guardian’s ICM poll for January is just out and has the Tories constant with Labour down a point and the Lib Dems up three. The changes are against the last published survey from the pollster just over a week ago and come after a period of sustained pressure from Labour on the Tory marriage plans. On that specific issue…
What’s going on at Number 10? There’s been lots of activity in the past hour following tweets about cabinet ministers arriving in Downing Street. The rumour mill is working ferociously and the idea that Brown might be about to call an election on the back of tomorrow’s “End of Recession” announcement is being floated. Can we taken it seriously? Who knows? It would certainly deal with Brown’s Chilcott problem. The last February general election was in 1974 when Heath’s Tory…
Hasn’t this become like October 2007? In all the speculation over May 6th really being the day let’s not forgot the total Horlicks that Labour/Brown made over the election that never was in October/November 2007. Then, according to the party’s general secretary at the time, Peter Watts, getting on for £1.2m of Labour precious resources had already been spent. A million and a half mail packs had been printed and stuffed and were ready to be sent to key voters…
Could they fall down in a row over studio audience? Interesting piece by David Wooding in the News of the World about rows between the parties over the formats for the planned leaders’ debates. The big issue is about the audiences – how they should be made up and whether they should be involved in the questioning. Apparently both Cameron and Brown don’t want direct questions from the floor for fear of being ambushed. But it’s who is in the…
Why’s the poster campaign focussed on vulnerable ministers? Before the weekend I suggested that the location of the outdoor poster sites that had been booked for the Tory NHS campaign might provide an indication of party strategy on how marginals were regarded. After all there is no point in spending good money in existing Tory or Labour strongholds – seats which are not going to change hands and will not affect the actual outcome. This prompted somebody to give me…
Poll of 97 LAB-held marginals CON 40% (+9.2) LAB 37% (-7.4) LD 14%(-3.8) Standard GB poll: CON 38% (-4) LAB 29% (nc) LD 19%(nc) Or is national voting intention that gives the best picture? Two very different polls tonight both suggesting quite different outcomes to the general election – one will cheer up Labour supporters and the other will provide a boost for the Tories. The comparisons in the former are with what happened in the 97 seats at the…
Has Peter Oborne got it right on the Iraq inquiry? There’s an excellent piece by Peter Oborne in the Mail today about how Brown’s Iraq inquiry strategy is falling apart. Describing the original plan as “masterful” Oborne” writes:“.. On the one hand he gained the credit for ordering Sir John Chilcot’s inquiry into the invasion, thus honouring one of the promises he made during his Labour leadership campaign in 2007. On the other hand he had cleverly arranged that he…